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What will be the outcome of the Hamas-Israel ceasefire and exchange deal by end of February 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yahya Sinwar's body returned • 25%
Information on Avera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed received • 25%
Hadar Goldin's body returned • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Official statements from both Hamas and Israeli governments, or credible news sources
Story
Hamas Demands Yahya Sinwar's Body in First Phase of Ceasefire and Hostage-Prisoner Exchange Deal with Israel
Jan 13, 2025, 08:15 PM
Hamas has reportedly demanded the body of Yahya Sinwar as part of the first phase of a ceasefire and hostage-prisoner exchange deal with Israel, according to Saudi media outlets Al Arabiya and Al-Hadath. In response, Israel has requested information on Avera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed, who have been held in Gaza for over a decade, and the return of Hadar Goldin's body. Israel is expected to receive a response on these matters before the end of the week. Additionally, Israel has asked for the deportation of some prisoners for at least five years and has agreed to immediate improvements in the conditions of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails.
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Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire without hostage release • 25%
Ceasefire with hostage release • 25%
No ceasefire agreement • 25%
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Ceasefire agreed • 25%
Ceasefire rejected • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Temporary truce without formal agreement • 25%
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No agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire with terms agreed • 25%
Ceasefire only agreed • 25%
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Other outcome • 25%
Partial ceasefire with phased agreements • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ceasefire and hostages release agreed • 25%
Hostage release only • 25%
Neither successful • 25%
Ceasefire and hostage release successful • 25%
Ceasefire only • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Partial ceasefire agreement • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Permanent ceasefire agreed • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Temporary ceasefire agreed • 25%
No Agreement Reached • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Full Ceasefire and Hostage Release • 25%
Partial Ceasefire and Hostage Release • 25%
Ceasefire not implemented • 25%
All hostages returned • 25%
Partial hostage return • 25%
No hostages returned • 25%
Partial agreement reached • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Full agreement reached • 25%
Talks collapse • 25%
Negotiations Ongoing • 25%
Agreement Rejected • 25%
Agreement Approved but Not Implemented • 25%
Agreement Approved and Implemented • 25%
Hostage exchange deal finalized • 25%
Ceasefire agreement only • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%