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What will be the outcome of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire holds with no major incidents • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor incidents • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Ceasefire is extended • 25%
Official announcements from Israel, Hamas, or international organizations
Story
Macron Announces Release of Ofer Kalderon and Ohad Yahalomi Among 33 Hostages in Gaza Ceasefire
Jan 17, 2025, 10:57 AM
French President Emmanuel Macron announced that French-Israeli citizens Ofer Kalderon and Ohad Yahalomi, who have been held captive for 15 months, are included in the first group of 33 hostages set to be released by Hamas. This release is part of the initial phase of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, which is expected to begin on Sunday. The hostages' release marks a significant step in the ongoing efforts to resolve the conflict in Gaza.
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Extended or renegotiated • 25%
Fully successful • 25%
Partially successful • 25%
Unsuccessful • 25%
Ceasefire breaks down completely • 25%
Ceasefire holds without violation • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Israel • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Hamas • 25%
Ceasefire collapses entirely • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
Partial implementation • 25%
No implementation • 25%
Ceasefire holds with full compliance • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor violations • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with major violations • 25%
Ceasefire fully implemented • 25%
Permanent peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire ends with renewed conflict • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Ceasefire ends without major incidents • 25%
Ceasefire with terms agreed • 25%
Temporary truce without formal agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Partial ceasefire agreement • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Partial ceasefire with phased agreements • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire and hostages release agreed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire only agreed • 25%
Ceasefire with hostage release • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ceasefire without hostage release • 25%
Renewed hostilities • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Partial ceasefire with conditions • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached and implemented • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached but not implemented • 25%
Ceasefire agreed • 25%
Ceasefire rejected • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreed, no hostages released • 25%
No ceasefire, no hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire agreed and hostages released • 25%
No ceasefire, hostages released • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Temporary ceasefire agreed • 25%
Permanent ceasefire agreed • 25%
Other • 25%