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What will be the outcome of the current ceasefire negotiations between Hamas and Israel by March 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire agreed and hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire agreed, no hostages released • 25%
No ceasefire, hostages released • 25%
No ceasefire, no hostages released • 25%
Official announcements from involved parties or international news reports
Story
Hamas Agrees to Gaza Ceasefire and Release of 33 Hostages, Netanyahu's Office Denies
Jan 15, 2025, 02:00 PM
Hamas has reportedly agreed to a ceasefire and hostage return proposal in Gaza, as shared by Qatari negotiators, according to an Israeli official. The proposal, mediated by the US, Qatar, and Egypt, involves the release of 33 hostages and a ceasefire in the region. However, the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has denied these reports, stating that Hamas has not yet responded to the proposal. Qatar's PM has met with Hamas negotiators in a final push toward the ceasefire and hostage release agreement. The conflicting statements highlight the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the ceasefire negotiations.
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Ceasefire agreement reached but not implemented • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
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Partial ceasefire with phased agreements • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
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Ceasefire and hostages release agreed • 25%
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Negotiations ongoing • 25%
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Ceasefire agreed • 25%
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Permanent ceasefire agreed • 25%
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Temporary truce without formal agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
No ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ceasefire with hostage release • 25%
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Hostage exchange deal finalized • 25%
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Permanent peace agreement • 25%
Extended ceasefire • 25%
Resumption of hostilities • 25%
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Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
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Full Ceasefire and Hostage Release • 25%