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Outcome of Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal by end of 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire holds, no major conflict • 25%
Ceasefire broken, minor skirmishes • 25%
Ceasefire broken, major conflict resumes • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Official government statements and credible news reports
Story
Ben-Gvir and Otzma Yehudit Ministers Resign Over Gaza Ceasefire Deal
Jan 18, 2025, 07:40 PM
Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir has resigned from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government in protest over a ceasefire and hostage exchange deal with Hamas in Gaza. Ben-Gvir, leader of the far-right Otzma Yehudit party, submitted his resignation along with other party ministers on Sunday morning, calling the agreement "disastrous", "reckless", and a threat to Israel's national security. He criticized the release of prisoners to Jerusalem and the West Bank, stating that the deal "violates all red lines" and undermines the war's successes. Despite his resignation, Ben-Gvir stated he would ensure Netanyahu remains Prime Minister.
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Ceasefire holds with full peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire extended with negotiations ongoing • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with renewed conflict • 25%
Ceasefire holds without full agreement • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor violations • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with major conflict • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire holds with no major violations • 25%
Resumption of conflict • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Sustained peace • 25%
Partial implementation with tensions • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Permanent ceasefire agreed • 25%
Temporary ceasefire agreed • 25%
Ceasefire holds with no major incidents • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor incidents • 25%
Ceasefire is extended • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Partial ceasefire with conditions • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Renewed hostilities • 25%
Fully successful • 25%
Extended or renegotiated • 25%
Unsuccessful • 25%
Partially successful • 25%
Yahya Sinwar's body returned • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Hadar Goldin's body returned • 25%
Information on Avera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed received • 25%
Temporary ceasefire extension • 25%
Permanent ceasefire • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Resumption of conflict • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Partial ceasefire agreement • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%