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Market
What form of international involvement will occur in the Israel-Hamas ceasefire by June 30, 2025?
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Israel•Hamas•Israeli•Gaza City•Romi Gonen•Doron Steinbrecher•Emily Damari•ICRC•Red Cross•Israeli Defense Forces•IDF•Gaza Strip•Netzarim Corridor•Gaza•Palestinian
Resolution / Starting Odds
UN intervention • 25%
EU mediation • 25%
US-led negotiations • 25%
No significant international involvement • 25%
Official statements from international bodies or news reports
Story
After 471 Days, Hamas Releases Three Israeli Hostages Under Ceasefire Deal
Jan 19, 2025, 03:40 PM
A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas came into effect on Sunday morning, leading to the release of three Israeli female hostages who had been held captive for 471 days in Gaza City. The hostages—Romi Gonen, Doron Steinbrecher, and Emily Damari—were handed over by Hamas to the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and are reported to be in good health. The Red Cross then transferred them to Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) troops inside the Gaza Strip, in the Netzarim Corridor area. Footage released by the IDF shows the moment the hostages crossed from Gaza into Israel, where their mothers were waiting to meet them. The release marks the first phase of a ceasefire deal, with the three women being the first of 33 Israeli hostages that Hamas is expected to free. Israel is expected to release about 90 Palestinian prisoners as part of the agreement over the next several weeks.
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Low involvement • 25%
High involvement • 25%
Moderate involvement • 25%
No involvement • 25%
UN issues a resolution supporting the ceasefire • 25%
No significant response from the UN • 25%
UN issues a resolution condemning the ceasefire • 25%
Mixed responses from international community • 25%
Broad international support • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Predominantly negative • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Broad support • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
Condemnation • 25%
Broad support • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
Predominantly negative • 25%
Largely indifferent • 25%
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Broad support • 25%
Predominantly negative • 25%
Indifference • 25%
No official response • 25%
Positive response • 25%
Mixed response • 25%
Negative response • 25%
No additional international involvement • 25%
UN involvement • 25%
US involvement • 25%
EU involvement • 25%
No major intervention • 25%
US-led intervention • 25%
UN intervention • 25%
EU intervention • 25%
Supportive • 25%
Neutral • 25%
Critical • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
Peace treaty • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor incidents • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Ceasefire is extended • 25%
Ceasefire holds with no major incidents • 25%