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What will be the next significant political change in Lebanon related to the Israeli airstrike by December 31, 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Resignation of a key Lebanese politician • 25%
Increased military actions against Israel • 25%
Formal diplomatic protest to the UN • 25%
No significant political change • 25%
Verified news reports from major media outlets
Story
Israeli Airstrike in Tyre's Al-Bass Camp Kills Hamas Leader Fathi al-Sharif and Family
Sep 30, 2024, 05:55 AM
Israel has conducted an airstrike in southern Lebanon that killed Fateh Sharif Abu al-Amin, also known as Fathi al-Sharif, the leader of Hamas in Lebanon, along with his wife and two sons, according to statements from Hamas. The strike targeted his home in the Al-Bass refugee camp in the city of Tyre. In addition to his role in Hamas, Abu al-Amin was the principal of a United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) school and served as the President of the UNRWA Teachers Union in Lebanon.
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Government remains unchanged • 25%
Government resigns • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Other significant political change • 25%
Government Resignation • 25%
New Elections Announced • 25%
No Significant Change • 25%
Other • 25%
Government collapse • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Increased military actions • 25%
No significant political change • 25%
Government resignation • 25%
New elections announced • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased support for Hezbollah • 25%
Calls for international intervention • 25%
Internal political turmoil • 25%
Calls for peace negotiations • 25%
Government instability • 25%
Increased support for Hezbollah • 25%
Increased support for pro-Western factions • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Increased support for Hezbollah • 25%
Decreased support for Hezbollah • 25%
Increased political instability • 25%
No significant change • 25%
New Prime Minister • 25%
New President • 25%
No change in leadership • 25%
Other significant political change • 25%
Hezbollah gains more political power • 25%
Hezbollah loses political power • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Other significant change • 25%
New government formed • 25%
Current government remains • 25%
Civil unrest increases • 25%
International intervention • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Prime Minister resigns • 25%
Parliament dissolved • 25%
New elections called • 25%
No significant change • 25%