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Will there be a change in leadership or government in Lebanon due to the conflict by December 31, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
New Prime Minister • 25%
New President • 25%
No change in leadership • 25%
Other significant political change • 25%
Official announcements from the Lebanese government and credible news sources such as Reuters or BBC
Story
Turkey and Spain Condemn Israel's Offensive in Lebanon as Illegal Invasion, Urge Immediate Withdrawal
Oct 1, 2024, 09:47 AM
Turkey's Foreign Ministry has condemned Israel's ground offensive in Lebanon as an 'illegal invasion attempt' and a violation of Lebanese territorial sovereignty. The ministry urged Israel to 'immediately end the offensive' and withdraw its troops from Lebanese territories. Spain also called for a cease-fire in Lebanon, with its Foreign Minister stating that Israel's ground incursions must stop to prevent further escalation of violence in the Middle East.
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Prime Minister resigns • 25%
Parliament dissolved • 25%
New elections called • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Change in Hezbollah leadership • 25%
Change in IDF leadership • 25%
Change in both leaderships • 25%
No change in leadership • 25%
Government collapse • 25%
Increased civil unrest • 25%
New coalition government • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Current leadership remains • 25%
Leadership change due to internal decision • 25%
Leadership change due to Israeli action • 25%
No clear information on leadership change • 25%
Resignation of a key Lebanese politician • 25%
Increased military actions against Israel • 25%
Formal diplomatic protest to the UN • 25%
No significant political change • 25%
Government remains unchanged • 25%
Government resigns • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Other significant political change • 25%
Hassan Nasrallah remains leader • 25%
Hassan Nasrallah steps down • 25%
Hassan Nasrallah is replaced by internal coup • 25%
Hassan Nasrallah is killed or incapacitated • 25%
Government resignation • 25%
New elections announced • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
No significant change • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
Current leadership remains • 25%
Internal power struggle • 25%
Hassan Nasrallah remains leader • 25%
Hezbollah disbands • 25%
Unknown • 25%
Same Leader • 25%
New Leader • 25%
Interim Leadership • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
Current leader remains • 25%
Leadership structure changes • 25%
No change reported • 25%
No change in leadership • 25%
Leadership change within Hezbollah • 25%
Hezbollah disbands • 25%
Other • 25%