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What will be the political outcome in Lebanon following the Israeli airstrikes by the end of 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Government collapse • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Increased military actions • 25%
No significant political change • 25%
Official Lebanese government announcements or verified news reports
Story
Israeli Airstrikes Kill Five Children in Beirut in Major Escalation
Sep 20, 2024, 01:13 PM
Israeli airstrikes have targeted the southern suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon, resulting in the deaths of five Lebanese children. The attacks, which involved three raids on a building, have left many civilians injured. Ambulances are currently retrieving the injured and victims, including children and the elderly, from the Al-Qaim area. This escalation has led to significant mayhem and destruction in the region. People are still under the rubble. The incident is being described as a major assassination and aggression by Israel.
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Government remains unchanged • 25%
Government resigns • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Other significant political change • 25%
Government Resignation • 25%
New Elections Announced • 25%
No Significant Change • 25%
Other • 25%
Government remains stable • 25%
Government resigns • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Increased civil unrest • 25%
Hezbollah gains more political power • 25%
Hezbollah loses political power • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Other significant change • 25%
New government formed • 25%
Current government remains • 25%
Civil unrest increases • 25%
International intervention • 25%
Increased support for Hezbollah • 25%
Decreased support for Hezbollah • 25%
Increased political instability • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Government instability • 25%
Increased support for Hezbollah • 25%
Increased support for pro-Western factions • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Israel withdraws troops • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Conflict escalates • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Resignation of a key Lebanese politician • 25%
Increased military actions against Israel • 25%
Formal diplomatic protest to the UN • 25%
No significant political change • 25%
De-escalation and peace talks • 25%
Continued low-level hostilities • 25%
Major escalation involving multiple countries • 25%
Other unexpected outcome • 25%
Increased support for Hezbollah • 25%
Calls for international intervention • 25%
Internal political turmoil • 25%
Calls for peace negotiations • 25%
Significant reduction in Hezbollah attacks • 25%
No change in Hezbollah attacks • 25%
Increase in Hezbollah attacks • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%