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What will be the impact on the Lebanese political landscape due to the airstrike by the end of 2024?
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Beirut•Hezbollah•Ibrahim Aqil•Aqil•Operations Unit•Radwan Force•Israeli Defense Forces•IDF•United States•US Embassy•Marine Barracks•Lebanese
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased support for Hezbollah • 25%
Decreased support for Hezbollah • 25%
Increased political instability • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Verified reports from major news agencies such as Reuters, BBC, or Al Jazeera
Story
Israeli Airstrike Kills Senior Hezbollah Commander Ibrahim Aqil in Beirut on Friday
Sep 20, 2024, 03:50 PM
Israeli airstrikes in Beirut on Friday have resulted in the death of senior Hezbollah commander Ibrahim Aqil. Aqil, who was the head of Hezbollah's Operations Unit and the commander of the elite Radwan Force, was targeted in the southern suburbs of Beirut. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed the strike, stating that Aqil was responsible for Hezbollah's military operations and was wanted by the United States for his involvement in the 1983 bombings of the US Embassy and Marine Barracks in Beirut. Aqil had a $7 million bounty on his head. Reports indicate that Aqil was killed alongside 10 other senior Hezbollah commanders during the airstrike. Lebanese health officials reported that at least 14 people were killed and nearly 60 wounded in the attack.
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Government Resignation • 25%
New Elections Announced • 25%
No Significant Change • 25%
Other • 25%
Government instability • 25%
Increased support for Hezbollah • 25%
Increased support for pro-Western factions • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Government collapse • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Increased military actions • 25%
No significant political change • 25%
Government remains stable • 25%
Government resigns • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Increased civil unrest • 25%
Government remains unchanged • 25%
Government resigns • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Other significant political change • 25%
Hezbollah gains more political power • 25%
Hezbollah loses political power • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Other significant change • 25%
Increased support for Hezbollah • 25%
Decreased support for Hezbollah • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased internal political instability • 25%
Strengthening of Hezbollah's influence • 25%
International diplomatic intervention • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Resignation of a key Lebanese politician • 25%
Increased military actions against Israel • 25%
Formal diplomatic protest to the UN • 25%
No significant political change • 25%
Government remains stable • 25%
Minor political unrest • 25%
Major political unrest • 25%
Government collapse • 25%
Increased support for Hezbollah • 25%
Calls for international intervention • 25%
Internal political turmoil • 25%
Calls for peace negotiations • 25%
Prime Minister Resigns • 25%
New Coalition Formed • 25%
No Significant Change • 25%
Other • 25%