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What will be the political fallout in Lebanon following the Israeli airstrike by the end of 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Government Resignation • 25%
New Elections Announced • 25%
No Significant Change • 25%
Other • 25%
Official government announcements and credible news reports
Story
Israeli Airstrike in Beirut Kills 37, Including Hezbollah Commanders, Women, and Children
Sep 21, 2024, 05:15 PM
An Israeli airstrike on a Beirut suburb has resulted in the death of 37 people, including two senior Hezbollah commanders, as well as seven women and three children. The attack, which targeted an apartment block, was confirmed by Israel's military. Lebanon's Health Ministry reported the updated death toll on Saturday.
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Government collapse • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Increased military actions • 25%
No significant political change • 25%
Increased support for Hezbollah • 25%
Decreased support for Hezbollah • 25%
Increased political instability • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Government instability • 25%
Increased support for Hezbollah • 25%
Increased support for pro-Western factions • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Government remains unchanged • 25%
Government resigns • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Other significant political change • 25%
Government remains stable • 25%
Government resigns • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Increased civil unrest • 25%
Increased support for Hezbollah • 25%
Calls for international intervention • 25%
Internal political turmoil • 25%
Calls for peace negotiations • 25%
Hezbollah gains more political power • 25%
Hezbollah loses political power • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Other significant change • 25%
Resignation of a key Lebanese politician • 25%
Increased military actions against Israel • 25%
Formal diplomatic protest to the UN • 25%
No significant political change • 25%
Government collapse • 25%
Hezbollah gains more power • 25%
Increased civil unrest • 25%
No significant change • 25%
New government formed • 25%
Current government remains • 25%
Civil unrest increases • 25%
International intervention • 25%
Government instability • 25%
Increased support for Hezbollah • 25%
Increased opposition to Hezbollah • 25%
No significant political change • 25%
Hezbollah retaliation • 25%
Government condemnation • 25%
Public protests • 25%
Other • 25%