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What will be the political outcome in Lebanon by March 31, 2025, following the airstrikes?
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Israeli•Hezbollah•Beirut•Ibrahim Qubaisi•Hajj Abu Musa•Dahieh•Hossein Hani Ezzeddin•Lebanese•Israel Defense Force•IDF•Muhammad Hussein Sarour•Lebanon
Resolution / Starting Odds
Hezbollah gains more political power • 25%
Hezbollah loses political power • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Other significant change • 25%
Official announcements from the Lebanese government, Hezbollah, and credible news sources such as Reuters, AP, or BBC.
Story
Israeli Airstrikes Kill Hezbollah Commanders Ibrahim Qubaisi and Muhammad Hussein Sarour in Beirut
Sep 26, 2024, 12:53 PM
The Israeli military confirmed it has killed two senior Hezbollah commanders in Beirut. Ibrahim Qubaisi, the head of Hezbollah’s missile and rocket unit, also known as Hajj Abu Musa, was eliminated in an airstrike on September 24, 2024. The strike, which targeted a high-rise residential building in the Dahieh suburb of Beirut, also resulted in the deaths of at least two other senior Hezbollah leaders, including Hossein Hani Ezzeddin. Lebanese authorities reported six deaths and 15 injuries from the strike. Footage of the airstrike was released by the Israel Defense Force (IDF). Additionally, on September 26, 2024, the IDF conducted another precision airstrike in Beirut, killing Muhammad Hussein Sarour, the commander of Hezbollah’s aerial forces, responsible for drone and air defense operations. The strikes are part of ongoing military actions that have resulted in over 560 casualties and widespread displacement in southern Lebanon.
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Government remains unchanged • 25%
Government resigns • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Other significant political change • 25%
New government formed • 25%
Current government remains • 25%
Civil unrest increases • 25%
International intervention • 25%
Government collapse • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Increased military actions • 25%
No significant political change • 25%
Government instability • 25%
Increased support for Hezbollah • 25%
Increased support for pro-Western factions • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Government remains stable • 25%
Government resigns • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Increased civil unrest • 25%
Government Resignation • 25%
New Elections Announced • 25%
No Significant Change • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased support for Hezbollah • 25%
Decreased support for Hezbollah • 25%
Increased political instability • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Resignation of a key Lebanese politician • 25%
Increased military actions against Israel • 25%
Formal diplomatic protest to the UN • 25%
No significant political change • 25%
Government remains stable • 25%
Minor political unrest • 25%
Major political unrest • 25%
Government collapse • 25%
Increased support for Hezbollah • 25%
Calls for international intervention • 25%
Internal political turmoil • 25%
Calls for peace negotiations • 25%
Condemnation of Israel • 25%
Appeal to United Nations • 25%
Military response • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Significant reduction in Hezbollah attacks • 25%
No change in Hezbollah attacks • 25%
Increase in Hezbollah attacks • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%