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What will be the impact on Lebanon's internal politics following the Israeli airstrike by March 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Government instability • 25%
Increased support for Hezbollah • 25%
Increased support for pro-Western factions • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Verified news reports from reputable sources such as Reuters, BBC, or Al Jazeera
Story
Hamas Commander Hussein Al-Nader, aka Abu Saleh, Killed in Israeli Airstrike in Lebanon
Sep 23, 2024, 09:05 PM
Sheikh Hussein Al-Nader, a senior leader of the Islamic Group in Lebanon and a field commander for Hamas' armed wing, al-Qassam Brigades, was killed in an Israeli airstrike on September 23, 2024. The airstrike targeted his home in Jdeidat Marjeyoun, southern Lebanon. Known by the nom de guerre Abu Saleh, Al-Nader's death has been confirmed by both the Islamic Group in Lebanon and Hamas.
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Increased support for Hezbollah • 25%
Decreased support for Hezbollah • 25%
Increased political instability • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Government Resignation • 25%
New Elections Announced • 25%
No Significant Change • 25%
Other • 25%
New government formed • 25%
Current government remains • 25%
Civil unrest increases • 25%
International intervention • 25%
Hezbollah gains more political power • 25%
Hezbollah loses political power • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Other significant change • 25%
Government collapse • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Increased military actions • 25%
No significant political change • 25%
Government remains unchanged • 25%
Government resigns • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Other significant political change • 25%
Increased support for Hezbollah • 25%
Calls for international intervention • 25%
Internal political turmoil • 25%
Calls for peace negotiations • 25%
Resignation of a key Lebanese politician • 25%
Increased military actions against Israel • 25%
Formal diplomatic protest to the UN • 25%
No significant political change • 25%
Government remains stable • 25%
Minor political unrest • 25%
Major political unrest • 25%
Government collapse • 25%
Hezbollah retaliation • 25%
Government condemnation • 25%
Public protests • 25%
Other • 25%
Government remains stable • 25%
Government resigns • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Increased civil unrest • 25%
Condemnation of Israel • 25%
Appeal to United Nations • 25%
Military response • 25%
No significant response • 25%