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Primary Impact on Lebanon Following IDF Strike by End of 2024?
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Israeli Defense Forces•IDF•Hezbollah•Lebanon•Bint Jbeil•Martyr Salah Ghandour Hospital•Israeli Air Force•IAF•Israel
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased internal political instability • 25%
Strengthening of Hezbollah's influence • 25%
International diplomatic intervention • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Credible media reports and analysis
Story
IDF and IAF Conduct First Strike on Hezbollah Command Center in Southern Lebanon Mosque
Oct 5, 2024, 07:16 AM
Overnight, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) conducted a precise drone strike on Hezbollah operatives at a command center embedded within a mosque in southern Lebanon's Bint Jbeil, adjacent to Martyr Salah Ghandour Hospital. The strike, guided by IDF intelligence and executed by the Israeli Air Force (IAF), targeted Hezbollah fighters who were using the mosque to plan and execute terrorist attacks against Israel. Notices were sent to residents before the strike, and conversations were held to minimize civilian casualties. This is the first such strike since clashes erupted between Israel and Hezbollah last year, the military said on Saturday morning.
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Increased support for Hezbollah • 25%
Decreased support for Hezbollah • 25%
Increased political instability • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Significant civilian displacement • 25%
Moderate civilian displacement • 25%
Minimal civilian displacement • 25%
No significant impact on civilians • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
New peace talks initiated • 25%
Government Resignation • 25%
New Elections Announced • 25%
No Significant Change • 25%
Other • 25%
Significant damage to Hezbollah infrastructure • 25%
Minimal damage to Hezbollah infrastructure • 25%
No confirmed damage • 25%
Hezbollah infrastructure relocated • 25%
Government instability • 25%
Increased support for Hezbollah • 25%
Increased support for pro-Western factions • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
De-escalation and peace talks • 25%
Continued low-level hostilities • 25%
Major escalation involving multiple countries • 25%
Other unexpected outcome • 25%
Hezbollah reduces operations • 25%
Hezbollah increases operations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Government collapse • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Increased military actions • 25%
No significant political change • 25%
Government remains stable • 25%
Government resigns • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Increased civil unrest • 25%
Government remains stable • 25%
Minor political unrest • 25%
Major political unrest • 25%
Government collapse • 25%