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What will be the impact of the Beirut explosion on the Lebanese political landscape by December 31, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased support for Hezbollah • 25%
Decreased support for Hezbollah • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Reports from major news outlets on political changes or statements from Lebanese political leaders
Story
Explosion in Beirut's Dahieh Following Israeli Airstrike Targeting Hezbollah Commander
Jul 30, 2024, 04:51 PM
An explosion was reported in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon, on Tuesday. Multiple sources indicate that the blast was a result of an Israeli airstrike targeting a senior Hezbollah commander. The strike occurred in the Dahieh area, specifically Haret Hreik, a known stronghold of Hezbollah. Witnesses reported hearing a loud blast, and footage of the explosion has surfaced. The fate of the targeted Hezbollah commander remains unknown, according to a security source.
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Government collapse • 25%
Increased civil unrest • 25%
New coalition government • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased support for Hezbollah • 25%
Decreased support for Hezbollah • 25%
Increased political instability • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Government remains unchanged • 25%
Government resigns • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Other significant political change • 25%
Government remains stable • 25%
Government resigns • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Increased civil unrest • 25%
Government instability • 25%
Increased support for Hezbollah • 25%
Increased support for pro-Western factions • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Government Resignation • 25%
New Elections Announced • 25%
No Significant Change • 25%
Other • 25%
Government resignation • 25%
New elections announced • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Government remains stable • 25%
Minor political unrest • 25%
Major political unrest • 25%
Government collapse • 25%
Government collapse • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Increased military actions • 25%
No significant political change • 25%
Government instability • 25%
Increased support for Hezbollah • 25%
Increased opposition to Hezbollah • 25%
No significant political change • 25%
Resignation of a key Lebanese politician • 25%
Increased military actions against Israel • 25%
Formal diplomatic protest to the UN • 25%
No significant political change • 25%
Government collapse • 25%
Hezbollah gains more power • 25%
Increased civil unrest • 25%
No significant change • 25%