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What will be the future of TikTok U.S. if the merger fails by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Shutdown • 25%
Acquired by Another Company • 25%
Continues Independently • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Official announcements from ByteDance or other relevant parties
Story
Perplexity AI Proposes $50 Billion Merger with TikTok U.S.; Trump May Extend Deadline
Jan 18, 2025, 08:08 PM
Perplexity AI, a relatively unknown tech firm backed by Jeff Bezos and Nvidia, has submitted an eleventh-hour bid to merge with TikTok U.S., according to sources familiar with the matter. The proposal, submitted to TikTok's parent company ByteDance, would create a new entity combining Perplexity AI, TikTok U.S., and New Capital Partners. The deal, which could value TikTok U.S. at over $50 billion, aims to prevent an impending shutdown of the popular social media platform in the United States. The merger would allow ByteDance's existing investors to retain their equity stakes and expand Perplexity AI's video presence. President Donald Trump is set to make an announcement and may grant a 90-day extension to finalize the deal.
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Operations continue as is • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
TikTok sold to U.S. company • 25%
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Acquired by Project Liberty • 25%
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Extension granted for divestment • 25%
TikTok is banned in the U.S. • 25%
ByteDance divests and TikTok continues operations • 25%
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Sold to Elon Musk's X • 25%
Continues under ByteDance • 25%
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Sold to Elon Musk • 25%
Not sold, ban overturned • 25%
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Supreme Court upholds ban and TikTok shuts down • 25%
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TikTok remains with ByteDance • 25%
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Sold to Kevin O'Leary • 25%
Sold to another non-Chinese entity • 25%
Banned and shut down • 25%
Operating under ByteDance • 25%
Operating under temporary extension • 25%
Sold and operating • 25%