Market
What will be the U.S. policy outcome towards Iran's nuclear program by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Military Action • 25%
Diplomatic Agreement • 25%
Increased Sanctions • 25%
Status Quo • 25%
Official U.S. government policies and international news reports
Story
Lindsey Graham Calls for Military Action Against Iran's Nuclear Program, Claims 'One in a Trillion' Chance for Diplomacy
Jan 20, 2025, 06:47 AM
Senator Lindsey Graham has called for military action against Iran's nuclear program, emphasizing that the highest priority is to prevent a nuclear-capable Iran. In a series of statements, Graham indicated that he believes diplomatic efforts have little chance of success, stating that the likelihood of effective negotiations is 'one in a trillion.' He asserted that Hamas will not govern Gaza and that the next step is to eliminate Iran's nuclear capabilities. Graham also mentioned his intent to collaborate with former President Donald Trump to achieve this goal, reinforcing his stance on the urgency of addressing Iran's nuclear threat.
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No significant change • 25%
US conducts military strike • 25%
Diplomatic agreement reached • 25%
Iran develops nuclear weapon • 25%
Military conflict • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
Sanctions increased • 25%
Military action taken • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Military action • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic efforts only • 25%
Transfer of military equipment to allies • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Continuation of current tensions • 25%
New nuclear agreement • 25%
Escalation to military conflict • 25%
Diplomatic agreement reached • 25%
Military action taken • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Continued stalemate • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Snapback sanctions reimposed • 25%
New diplomatic agreement reached • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Increased sanctions without conflict • 25%
Military conflict • 25%
New diplomatic agreement • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Military action taken • 25%
New diplomatic agreement • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Seek diplomatic resolution • 25%
Pursue nuclear weapons • 25%
Maintain current stance • 25%
Enhance nuclear energy use • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Military intervention occurs • 25%
New sanctions imposed on Iran • 25%
Iran complies with nuclear deal terms • 25%