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What will be the outcome of Iran's nuclear program escalations by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Iran complies with nuclear deal terms • 25%
New sanctions imposed on Iran • 25%
Military intervention occurs • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Official reports from IAEA, UN Security Council resolutions, or major international agreements
Story
E3 Accuses Iran of Escalating Nuclear Program with 60% Uranium Enrichment
Dec 17, 2024, 09:58 PM
Britain, France, and Germany, collectively known as the E3, have accused Iran of escalating its nuclear program by increasing its stockpile of high enriched uranium to 'unprecedented levels' without any 'credible civilian justification.' This statement was issued ahead of a UN Security Council meeting focused on Iran's nuclear activities. The trio urged Iran to reverse its nuclear escalation and emphasized that the current levels of uranium enrichment, reaching 60 percent, could enable Iran to rapidly produce enough fissile material for multiple nuclear weapons. They also noted Iran's increased installation of advanced centrifuges as a damaging step that undermines the nuclear deal.
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Sanctions increased • 25%
Military action taken • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations Extended • 25%
Successful Agreement • 25%
Partial Agreement • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Diplomatic agreement reached • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Iran develops nuclear weapon • 25%
US conducts military strike • 25%
Only Israel strikes • 25%
Only U.S. strikes • 25%
Both Israel and U.S. strike • 25%
No military action • 25%
Escalation to military conflict • 25%
New nuclear agreement • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Continuation of current tensions • 25%
Unsuccessful strikes • 25%
Successful strikes with no retaliation • 25%
Successful strikes with Iranian retaliation • 25%
No strikes conducted • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Military action taken • 25%
Diplomatic agreement reached • 25%
Continued stalemate • 25%
No response by deadline • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Talks initiated • 25%
Talks rejected • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Snapback sanctions reimposed • 25%
New diplomatic agreement reached • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Status Quo • 25%
Diplomatic Agreement • 25%
Increased Sanctions • 25%
Military Action • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Other • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations failed • 25%