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How will Iran's nuclear policy change by the end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Pursue nuclear weapons • 25%
Maintain current stance • 25%
Enhance nuclear energy use • 25%
Seek diplomatic resolution • 25%
Official statements from the Iranian government or credible international agencies
Story
Sullivan Warns Weakened Iran May Seek Nuclear Weapon; Trump Proposes Talks via Oman
Dec 22, 2024, 05:48 PM
White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has expressed concern that Iran may seek to develop a nuclear weapon following recent setbacks that have weakened its conventional capabilities, including Israeli attacks. Sullivan told CNN on Sunday that "it's no wonder there are voices in Iran saying, 'Hey, maybe we need to go for a nuclear weapon right now... maybe we have to revisit our nuclear doctrine.'" He emphasized that there is a "real risk" that Iran may change its longstanding position of not pursuing nuclear weapons. The Biden administration is briefing President-elect Donald Trump's team on the potential threat, highlighting the urgency of the situation. Meanwhile, reports from Baghdad Alyoum indicate that Trump has sent messages via Oman to Iran proposing negotiations on several issues, including Iran's nuclear program. Trump is reportedly willing to reach an agreement but may only wait a few months for a response. Sullivan expressed hope that Trump would use this opportunity to reach an agreement that limits Iran's nuclear ambitions.
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Maintain current levels • 25%
Increase enrichment levels • 25%
Decrease enrichment levels • 25%
Other policy change • 25%
Decrease in enrichment activities • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increase in enrichment activities • 25%
Full compliance with international demands • 25%
Reduced nuclear activities • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Significant advancements • 25%
Nuclear program dismantled • 25%
Continuation with increased transparency • 25%
Complete suspension of nuclear program • 25%
Acceleration of nuclear development • 25%
No change in current policy • 25%
Diplomatic Agreement • 25%
Increased Sanctions • 25%
Status Quo • 25%
Military Action • 25%
Significant acceleration • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Significant deceleration • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Sanctions increased • 25%
Military action taken • 25%
Diplomatic agreement reached • 25%
Iran develops nuclear weapon • 25%
US conducts military strike • 25%
No significant change • 25%
