Market
What will be the U.S. foreign policy outcome towards Iran by the end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
Military conflict • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Official U.S. government policy statements and actions
Story
Trump Leaves Open Possibility of War with Iran in Second Term Amid Volatile Situation
Dec 12, 2024, 02:41 PM
In an interview with TIME magazine, President-elect Donald Trump did not rule out the possibility of a military conflict with Iran during his upcoming second term. When asked about the likelihood of war with Iran, Trump responded, 'Anything can happen. Anything can happen. It's a very volatile situation.' This statement comes amidst heightened tensions between the U.S. and Iran, with Trump's administration previously accusing the Revolutionary Guards of attempting to assassinate him, a claim Iran has denied. Trump's comments also reflect his broader foreign policy approach, which includes a policy of 'maximum pressure' on Iran, marked by his withdrawal from the JCPOA nuclear deal in 2018 and the reinstatement of economic sanctions against Tehran.
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Increased Sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic Agreement • 25%
Military Action • 25%
Status Quo • 25%
Increased diplomatic engagement • 25%
Complete policy overhaul • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Continuation of current policy • 25%
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Worsened Relations • 25%
Military Conflict • 25%
Improved Relations • 25%
Status Quo • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Severed diplomatic ties • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Successful hostage release • 25%
Military action • 25%
No significant change • 25%
US conducts military strike • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Diplomatic agreement reached • 25%
Iran develops nuclear weapon • 25%
Other • 25%
Successful agreement • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Escalation • 25%
Military action taken • 25%
Diplomatic agreement reached • 25%
Continued stalemate • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Successful agreement • 25%
No talks held • 25%
Talks initiated but stalled • 25%
Talks held but no agreement • 25%
Maintained status quo • 25%
Withdrawal from previous agreements • 25%
Increased military posturing • 25%
Increased diplomatic engagement • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
New diplomatic agreement • 25%
Military conflict • 25%
Increased sanctions without conflict • 25%