Market
What will be the outcome of US-Iran relations regarding Iran's nuclear program by the end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
US conducts military strike • 25%
Diplomatic agreement reached • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Iran develops nuclear weapon • 25%
Official diplomatic announcements, credible news sources, or international agreements
Story
Biden and Sullivan Discuss Potential Strikes on Iran's Nuclear Facilities Before January 20
Jan 5, 2025, 05:32 PM
President Joe Biden and his National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan discussed potential military strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities should Tehran move towards developing a nuclear weapon before January 20. The discussions, which took place about a month ago, were part of a broader strategy session on various scenarios and options, but no final decision was made by Biden. This meeting was not prompted by new intelligence but was described as 'prudent scenario planning.' Sullivan presented Biden with a range of strike options, but the president has not authorized any action against Iran's nuclear program. Iran has increased its uranium enrichment to 60%, close to the 90% needed for a nuclear weapon, and has enough material to potentially produce four nuclear bombs if enriched further. The Biden administration has been criticized for its approach to Iran, with some officials suggesting that the weakened state of Iran's regional proxies might present an opportune moment for a strike.
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Status Quo • 25%
Increased Sanctions • 25%
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Other outcomes • 25%
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