Market
Will Iran announce a cessation of its nuclear program by end of 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official statements from the Iranian government or coverage by major international news agencies
Story
Lindsey Graham Calls for Military Action Against Iran's Nuclear Program, Claims 'One in a Trillion' Chance for Diplomacy
Jan 20, 2025, 06:47 AM
Senator Lindsey Graham has called for military action against Iran's nuclear program, emphasizing that the highest priority is to prevent a nuclear-capable Iran. In a series of statements, Graham indicated that he believes diplomatic efforts have little chance of success, stating that the likelihood of effective negotiations is 'one in a trillion.' He asserted that Hamas will not govern Gaza and that the next step is to eliminate Iran's nuclear capabilities. Graham also mentioned his intent to collaborate with former President Donald Trump to achieve this goal, reinforcing his stance on the urgency of addressing Iran's nuclear threat.
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Resolved through sanctions • 25%
Resolved through diplomacy • 25%
Resolved through military intervention • 25%
Unresolved • 25%
Complete suspension of nuclear program • 25%
Continuation with increased transparency • 25%
No change in current policy • 25%
Acceleration of nuclear development • 25%
Pursue nuclear weapons • 25%
Seek diplomatic resolution • 25%
Enhance nuclear energy use • 25%
Maintain current stance • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Military action taken • 25%
Sanctions increased • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reduced nuclear activities • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Nuclear program dismantled • 25%
Significant advancements • 25%