Market
What will be the primary US diplomatic approach to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Economic Sanctions • 25%
Direct Negotiations • 25%
Military Support to Ukraine • 25%
Other • 25%
Official statements or policy documents from the U.S. Department of State or the White House
Story
Marco Rubio Calls for End to Russia-Ukraine War, Advocates Bold Diplomacy and Concessions
Jan 15, 2025, 04:28 PM
Marco Rubio, President-elect Donald Trump's nominee for Secretary of State, has called for an end to the Russia-Ukraine war during his Senate confirmation hearing. Rubio emphasized that the conflict should be the official policy of the United States to end, advocating for 'bold diplomacy' to achieve a ceasefire. He stated that both Russia and Ukraine would need to make concessions to resolve the conflict, acknowledging the impracticality of Russia taking all of Ukraine or Ukraine pushing Russian forces back to their pre-invasion positions. Rubio highlighted the devastating impact of the war on Ukraine, noting the country's loss of infrastructure and population, and stressed the need for a realistic approach to peace negotiations.
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Peace settlement achieved • 25%
Escalation in conflict • 25%
Ceasefire achieved • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Sanctions on Russia • 25%
Military support to Ukraine • 25%
Ceasefire negotiations • 25%
Humanitarian aid • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Military support to Ukraine • 25%
Economic sanctions on Russia • 25%
Non-intervention • 25%
Peace treaty signed • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Conflict continues • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Formal diplomatic talks initiated • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
De-escalation agreement • 25%
New sanctions imposed • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
Sanctions and economic pressure • 25%
Other • 25%
Continued military escalation • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Diplomatic stalemate • 25%
Bilateral negotiations only • 25%
Negotiations stalled • 25%
No negotiations • 25%
Multilateral talks including NATO • 25%
Temporary ceasefire • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Comprehensive peace agreement • 25%
Increased military support • 25%
Decreased military support • 25%
Diplomatic focus • 25%
Mixed approach • 25%
No significant change • 25%
De-escalation agreement • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Other • 25%