Market
What will be the outcome of diplomatic efforts between the US and Russia regarding the Ukraine conflict by March 31, 2025?
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Kremlin•Russia•Ukraine•Taganrog•Beriev•5th Aviation Group•6955th Air Base•Dmitry Peskov•Russian Ministry of Defense•US•Russian•Pentagon•Sabrina Singh•Oreshnik
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
De-escalation agreement • 25%
New sanctions imposed • 25%
Official statements from the US State Department or Russian Foreign Ministry, and major news outlets
Story
Russia to Retaliate Against Ukraine's ATACMS Attack on Taganrog, Warns of Oreshnik Missile Strike
Dec 12, 2024, 09:19 AM
The Kremlin has confirmed that Russia will respond to Ukraine's recent missile attack on the Taganrog airfield, which utilized US-supplied ATACMS missiles. The attack resulted in one soldier killed and 41 wounded, targeting not only the Beriev aviation plant but also a military unit housing the 5th Aviation Group of the 6955th Air Base. Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin's spokesman, stated that the response would occur 'at a time and in a manner deemed appropriate,' echoing the Russian Ministry of Defense's earlier declaration. This incident has escalated tensions, with the US expressing concerns over potential Russian retaliation. Additionally, Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh noted that Russia might launch a new Oreshnik missile against Ukraine in the coming days.
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Other resolution • 25%
Increased sanctions on Russia • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
No significant change • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Peace settlement achieved • 25%
Ceasefire achieved • 25%
Escalation in conflict • 25%
Continued military escalation • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Diplomatic stalemate • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Escalation • 25%
No Talks • 25%
Significant Progress • 25%
Increased hostilities • 25%
Successful de-escalation • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Other • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
De-escalation agreement • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Talks postponed indefinitely • 25%
Talks end with no agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Lasting peace agreement • 25%
Temporary ceasefire • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Formal diplomatic talks initiated • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Complete withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine • 25%
Partial withdrawal with territorial concessions • 25%
No significant change in the situation • 25%
Increased US support for Ukraine • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Peace treaty • 25%