Market
Outcome of US diplomatic efforts in Russia-Ukraine conflict by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire achieved • 25%
Peace settlement achieved • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Escalation in conflict • 25%
Official reports from the US State Department or credible international news agencies
Story
Trump Nominee Rubio Calls for Bold Diplomacy and Ceasefire to End Russia-Ukraine War
Jan 15, 2025, 04:00 PM
Marco Rubio, nominated by President Donald Trump as Secretary of State, has stated that it should be the official policy of the United States to end the Russia-Ukraine war. Rubio emphasized the need for 'bold diplomacy' to achieve this, suggesting that the process could begin with a ceasefire. He acknowledged that reaching a peace settlement would be challenging and would require both Russia and Ukraine to make concessions. Rubio also highlighted the dire situation in Ukraine, noting that the country is 'running out of Ukrainians' rather than financial resources. Rubio called for increased NATO defense contributions and stressed the importance of setting and achieving objectives in the peace process.
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Status quo • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Formal diplomatic talks initiated • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Peace treaty signed • 25%
Conflict continues • 25%
New sanctions imposed • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
De-escalation agreement • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Increased sanctions on Russia • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Continued military escalation • 25%
Diplomatic stalemate • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
No Talks • 25%
Escalation • 25%
Significant Progress • 25%
De-escalation agreement • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Temporary ceasefire • 25%
Comprehensive peace agreement • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
No significant change in the situation • 25%
Partial withdrawal with territorial concessions • 25%
Complete withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
New peace talks initiated • 25%
Increased military support • 25%
Increased economic sanctions on Russia • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Stalemate continues • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Ukraine regains territories • 25%
Russia gains significant control • 25%