Market
Primary resolution method for Russia-Ukraine conflict by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
Sanctions and economic pressure • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcements from the Russian or Ukrainian governments or credible international news sources
Story
Trump Calls for Ukraine Ceasefire, Warns of Likely Sanctions if Putin Avoids Talks
Jan 21, 2025, 10:56 PM
President Donald Trump stated on Tuesday that he would likely impose additional sanctions on Russia if President Vladimir Putin does not engage in negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. Calling for a ceasefire, Trump emphasized the need for dialogue to resolve the conflict. When asked whether he would consider further sanctions if Putin refuses to come to the negotiating table, Trump responded, "Sounds likely." He indicated that U.S. military aid to Ukraine would be reviewed following talks and insisted that European nations should match U.S. contributions. Trump also expressed his willingness to meet with Putin at any time considered appropriate by the Russian president.
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Ceasefire • 25%
Other • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Peace treaty • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Conflict escalates • 25%
Conflict continues at current levels • 25%
Conflict ends with peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Peace Agreement Signed • 25%
Continued Conflict • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Full peace agreement • 25%
Temporary ceasefire • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Ceasefire declared • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Conflict continues • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Peace treaty signed • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Formal ceasefire • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Ukraine regains territories • 25%
Russia gains significant control • 25%
Stalemate continues • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Full withdrawal of Russian forces • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Full peace treaty • 25%
Peace treaty signed • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Other • 25%
Russia gains territorial advantage • 25%
Peace agreement signed • 25%
Conflict continues with no resolution • 25%
Ukraine gains territorial advantage • 25%