Market
What will be the political outcome for South Korea by end of 2025 following coup allegations?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
New election • 25%
New interim government • 25%
Yoon remains in office • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcements from the South Korean government or major news outlets.
Story
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol Faces Detention Hearing at Seoul Western District Court Over Coup Allegations
Jan 18, 2025, 01:10 AM
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, arrested on charges of being the mastermind behind a coup attempt through the declaration of martial law, appeared in court for a hearing to determine his detention. The hearing, held at the Seoul Western District Court, marks the first time a sitting president has been subjected to such a process in South Korea's history. Yoon's arrest followed weeks of political turmoil, including his declaration of martial law on December 3, 2024, which led to a standoff at the National Assembly and his subsequent impeachment. The Corruption Investigation Office for High-Ranking Officials (CIO) has sought a detention warrant against Yoon, citing the severity of the alleged crimes and the risk of further offenses. Yoon's legal team has argued that the martial law declaration was within the president's constitutional rights and not an act of treason. The outcome of the hearing could determine whether Yoon remains in custody or is released, with a decision expected as early as the night of the hearing or the following morning.
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Status quo maintained • 25%
Governmental changes • 25%
Escalation to further conflict • 25%
Resolution through negotiation • 25%
Government change • 25%
Other • 25%
Continued unrest • 25%
Stability restored • 25%
Military coup occurs • 25%
President Yoon remains in power • 25%
President Yoon is impeached • 25%
Power-sharing agreement reached • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Government reshuffle • 25%
Other significant resolution • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Yoon remains in power • 25%
Yoon resigns • 25%
Yoon is arrested • 25%
Martial law lifted, current government remains • 25%
Martial law lifted, opposition gains power • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Martial law remains, government unchanged • 25%
New presidential elections called • 25%
Prime Minister Han Duck-soo becomes president • 25%
Yoon Suk Yeol reinstated • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
New elections held • 25%
Other • 25%
Yoon Suk Yeol reinstated • 25%
Interim government established • 25%
New President elected • 25%
Military takes control • 25%
Political stalemate • 25%
Yoon remains President • 25%
Yoon Resigns • 25%
Yoon Remains in Power • 25%
Other Resolution • 25%
Yoon Impeached • 25%
Escalation of crisis • 25%
Crisis resolved • 25%
Crisis ongoing • 25%
Other • 25%
Other • 25%
Yoon Suk Yeol Reinstated • 25%
New President Elected • 25%
Interim President Appointed • 25%