Market
What will be the outcome of South Korea's political situation following the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol by the end of 2025?
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North Korea•Pyongyang•Sea of Japan•Japan•North Korean•Kim Jong Un•Pacific•Antony Blinken•Seoul•South Korea•Yoon Suk Yeol
Resolution / Starting Odds
New elections held • 25%
Interim government established • 25%
Yoon Suk Yeol reinstated • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcements from South Korean government or news reports
Story
North Korea Launches Hypersonic IRBM, Travels 1,500km, Kim Jong Un Claims Unstoppable Weapon
Jan 6, 2025, 01:58 PM
North Korea conducted its first missile launch of 2025, firing an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) suspected to be equipped with a hypersonic warhead. The missile, which reportedly traveled at 12 times the speed of sound, was launched from the Pyongyang area and flew approximately 1,500 kilometers before landing in the Sea of Japan, outside Japan's exclusive economic zone. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, along with his daughter, oversaw the test, which he claimed demonstrated the country's ability to deter adversaries in the Pacific region with a weapon that no one can counter. The missile utilized new carbon fiber materials and was part of North Korea's strategy to enhance its strategic deterrence capabilities. The launch occurred as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken was visiting Seoul, amid political turmoil in South Korea following the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol.
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Other outcome • 25%
New presidential elections called • 25%
Prime Minister Han Duck-soo becomes president • 25%
Yoon Suk Yeol reinstated • 25%
Strengthening of current government • 25%
Major shift towards opposition • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Impeached and removed • 25%
Impeachment motion withdrawn • 25%
Not impeached • 25%
Impeached but not removed • 25%
Fails with less than 200 votes • 25%
Passes with required 200 votes • 25%
Tied or inconclusive result • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Continuation of current situation • 25%
Resolution with reforms • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
Other • 25%
Resigned Before Decision • 34%
Not Impeached • 33%
Impeached • 33%
Protests dissipate • 25%
Pro-Yoon protests prevail • 25%
Anti-Yoon protests prevail • 25%
Protests remain evenly matched • 25%
Resigns • 25%
Successfully completes term • 25%
Other • 25%
Impeached • 25%
Vote Delayed • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Impeachment Failed • 25%
Impeachment Passed • 25%
Resigned before conclusion • 25%
Not impeached • 25%
Impeached but not removed • 25%
Impeached and removed • 25%
Resigns before decision • 25%
Other • 25%
Reinstated • 25%
Removed from office • 25%