Market
What will be the outcome of Turkey's threat against PKK/YPG in Syria by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Military operation conducted • 25%
PKK/YPG leadership leaves voluntarily • 25%
Diplomatic resolution reached • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Reports from international news agencies and official statements from involved parties
Story
Turkey Threatens Military Action Against PKK/YPG in Syria if Leadership Does Not Leave
Jan 7, 2025, 07:15 PM
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has warned that Turkey will launch a military operation against Kurdish militants in Syria if they do not comply with Ankara's demands. Fidan emphasized that the new Syrian administration must address the issue of Kurdish militants in northeastern Syria, although it may take time. He stated that Turkey has issued a final ultimatum, and the PKK and YPG leadership must leave Syria. If they fail to do so, Turkey will take necessary action, which includes military operations. Fidan also mentioned that Turkey does not seek sovereignty or influence over Syria but opposes any foreign control. He noted that Turkey has previously conducted operations against the PKK/YPG despite U.S. presence in the region.
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Military Operation Launched • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Diplomatic Resolution Achieved • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Failure • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Complete success • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Complete success • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
No success • 25%
PKK/YPG gains strength • 25%
Complete elimination • 25%
Partial reduction • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Military victory for Turkey • 25%
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Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Peaceful agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Significant reduction in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
No significant change in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
Increase in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
Significant reduction • 25%
Minimal impact • 25%
PKK/YPG strengthens • 25%
Complete eradication • 25%
YPG does not disband, military operation initiated • 25%
YPG disbands • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Negotiations lead to a compromise • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
No agreement, continued tensions • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Significant reduction in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
Increase in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
No significant change in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Successful elimination of PKK/YPG presence • 25%
Partial success with continued PKK/YPG activity • 25%
No significant impact on PKK/YPG presence • 25%
Operation not conducted • 25%
Significant reduction of PKK/YPG activities • 25%
Successful elimination of PKK/YPG presence • 25%
Increased PKK/YPG activities • 25%
No significant change • 25%