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Russia and Ukraine Exchange 25 POWs Each, Including Azovstal Defenders, in UAE-Mediated Swap

Jan 15, 2025, 01:24 PM

Russia and Ukraine have conducted the first prisoner exchange of 2025, each side releasing 25 prisoners of war, according to statements from both countries' defense ministries. The exchange, mediated by the United Arab Emirates, took place on the territory of Belarus. Among those returning to Ukraine are military personnel and civilians, including defenders from Mariupol and the Azovstal steelworks, as well as individuals from the Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions. Many of the Ukrainian returnees are reported to have serious injuries and illnesses, including amputations, gunshot wounds, tuberculosis, cancer, and gangrene. The Russian soldiers are currently in Belarus receiving medical care before being transported to Russia for further treatment and rehabilitation. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed commitment to bringing all Ukrainians home, stating that Ukraine will not stop until all its people are returned.

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Another Russia-Ukraine prisoner exchange by March 31, 2025?

Russia•Ukraine•United Arab Emirates•Belarus•Mariupol•Azovstal steelworks•Kharkiv•Donetsk•Zaporizhzhia•Kherson•Ukrainian•Russian•Volodymyr Zelensky

Resolution / Starting Odds

No • 50%

Yes • 50%

Official statements from Russia and Ukraine's defense ministries or other credible news outlets

UAE mediates another Russia-Ukraine prisoner exchange by June 30, 2025?

Russia•Ukraine•United Arab Emirates•Belarus•Mariupol•Azovstal steelworks•Kharkiv•Donetsk•Zaporizhzhia•Kherson•Ukrainian•Russian•Volodymyr Zelensky

Resolution / Starting Odds

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

Official announcements from UAE, Russia, or Ukraine, or credible international news agencies

Ukraine conducts successful prisoner rescue from Russia by end of 2025?

Russia•Ukraine•United Arab Emirates•Belarus•Mariupol•Azovstal steelworks•Kharkiv•Donetsk•Zaporizhzhia•Kherson•Ukrainian•Russian•Volodymyr Zelensky

Resolution / Starting Odds

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

Official statements from the Ukrainian government or credible news reports

Will another UAE-mediated prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine occur in 2025?

Russia•Ukraine•United Arab Emirates•Belarus•Mariupol•Azovstal steelworks•Kharkiv•Donetsk•Zaporizhzhia•Kherson•Ukrainian•Russian•Volodymyr Zelensky

Resolution / Starting Odds

No • 50%

Yes • 50%

Official statements from Russia and Ukraine defense ministries or international news agencies

Will Russia and Ukraine agree on a ceasefire by June 30, 2025?

Russia•Ukraine•United Arab Emirates•Belarus•Mariupol•Azovstal steelworks•Kharkiv•Donetsk•Zaporizhzhia•Kherson•Ukrainian•Russian•Volodymyr Zelensky

Resolution / Starting Odds

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

Official announcements from the Ukrainian and Russian governments

Will there be more POW exchanges between Russia and Ukraine in 2025 compared to 2024?

Russia•Ukraine•United Arab Emirates•Belarus•Mariupol•Azovstal steelworks•Kharkiv•Donetsk•Zaporizhzhia•Kherson•Ukrainian•Russian•Volodymyr Zelensky

Resolution / Starting Odds

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

Official records from Russia and Ukraine defense ministries or international news agencies

Will Ukraine and Russia conduct another UAE-mediated prisoner exchange by March 31, 2025?

Russia•Ukraine•United Arab Emirates•Belarus•Mariupol•Azovstal steelworks•Kharkiv•Donetsk•Zaporizhzhia•Kherson•Ukrainian•Russian•Volodymyr Zelensky

Resolution / Starting Odds

No • 50%

Yes • 50%

Official announcements from the Ukrainian and Russian defense ministries

Will Ukraine negotiate the return of all its POWs from Russia by end of 2025?

Russia•Ukraine•United Arab Emirates•Belarus•Mariupol•Azovstal steelworks•Kharkiv•Donetsk•Zaporizhzhia•Kherson•Ukrainian•Russian•Volodymyr Zelensky

Resolution / Starting Odds

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

Official announcements from the Ukrainian government or international news agencies

Will Ukraine secure the release of all Mariupol and Azovstal defenders by the end of 2025?

Russia•Ukraine•United Arab Emirates•Belarus•Mariupol•Azovstal steelworks•Kharkiv•Donetsk•Zaporizhzhia•Kherson•Ukrainian•Russian•Volodymyr Zelensky

Resolution / Starting Odds

No • 50%

Yes • 50%

Official statements from Ukrainian government or defense ministry

Country mediating next Russia-Ukraine prisoner exchange by end of 2025?

Russia•Ukraine•United Arab Emirates•Belarus•Mariupol•Azovstal steelworks•Kharkiv•Donetsk•Zaporizhzhia•Kherson•Ukrainian•Russian•Volodymyr Zelensky

Resolution / Starting Odds

Other • 25%

Belarus • 25%

Turkey • 25%

United Arab Emirates • 25%

Official announcements from Russia, Ukraine, or the mediating country, or credible international news agencies

How many Ukrainian POWs will be released in the next exchange with Russia by June 30, 2025?

Russia•Ukraine•United Arab Emirates•Belarus•Mariupol•Azovstal steelworks•Kharkiv•Donetsk•Zaporizhzhia•Kherson•Ukrainian•Russian•Volodymyr Zelensky

Resolution / Starting Odds

50-74 • 25%

Less than 25 • 25%

75 or more • 25%

25-49 • 25%

Official announcements from the Ukrainian defense ministry

Primary condition of Ukrainian POWs in next exchange by end of 2025?

Russia•Ukraine•United Arab Emirates•Belarus•Mariupol•Azovstal steelworks•Kharkiv•Donetsk•Zaporizhzhia•Kherson•Ukrainian•Russian•Volodymyr Zelensky

Resolution / Starting Odds

Minor injuries • 25%

Critical condition • 25%

Healthy • 25%

Serious injuries • 25%

Official statements from Ukraine's defense ministry or credible news reports

Region majority of Ukrainian POWs come from in next exchange by end of 2025?

Russia•Ukraine•United Arab Emirates•Belarus•Mariupol•Azovstal steelworks•Kharkiv•Donetsk•Zaporizhzhia•Kherson•Ukrainian•Russian•Volodymyr Zelensky

Resolution / Starting Odds

Zaporizhzhia • 25%

Donetsk • 25%

Other • 25%

Kherson • 25%

Official statements from Ukraine's defense ministry or credible news reports

What will be the main health condition reported among Ukrainian POWs in the next exchange in 2025?

Russia•Ukraine•United Arab Emirates•Belarus•Mariupol•Azovstal steelworks•Kharkiv•Donetsk•Zaporizhzhia•Kherson•Ukrainian•Russian•Volodymyr Zelensky

Resolution / Starting Odds

Tuberculosis • 25%

Amputations • 25%

Gunshot wounds • 25%

Other • 25%

Official announcements from the Ukrainian government or international news agencies

What will be the outcome of the next major diplomatic negotiation involving Ukraine and Russia by the end of 2025?

Russia•Ukraine•United Arab Emirates•Belarus•Mariupol•Azovstal steelworks•Kharkiv•Donetsk•Zaporizhzhia•Kherson•Ukrainian•Russian•Volodymyr Zelensky

Resolution / Starting Odds

No agreement • 25%

Ceasefire agreement • 25%

Territorial agreement • 25%

Prisoner exchange agreement • 25%

Official announcements from the Ukrainian and Russian governments or international bodies

Which country will mediate the next Ukraine-Russia prisoner exchange by the end of 2025?

Russia•Ukraine•United Arab Emirates•Belarus•Mariupol•Azovstal steelworks•Kharkiv•Donetsk•Zaporizhzhia•Kherson•Ukrainian•Russian•Volodymyr Zelensky

Resolution / Starting Odds

United Arab Emirates • 25%

Turkey • 25%

Belarus • 25%

Other • 25%

Official announcements from the Ukrainian and Russian defense ministries

Which entity will mediate the next prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine in 2025?

Russia•Ukraine•United Arab Emirates•Belarus•Mariupol•Azovstal steelworks•Kharkiv•Donetsk•Zaporizhzhia•Kherson•Ukrainian•Russian•Volodymyr Zelensky

Resolution / Starting Odds

United Arab Emirates • 25%

Other • 25%

International Red Cross • 25%

Turkey • 25%

Official statements from Russia and Ukraine defense ministries or international news agencies

Which region will have the most Ukrainian POWs returned in the next exchange in 2025?

Russia•Ukraine•United Arab Emirates•Belarus•Mariupol•Azovstal steelworks•Kharkiv•Donetsk•Zaporizhzhia•Kherson•Ukrainian•Russian•Volodymyr Zelensky

Resolution / Starting Odds

Donetsk • 25%

Other • 25%

Mariupol • 25%

Kharkiv • 25%

Official announcements from the Ukrainian government or international news agencies

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