Market
What will be the outcome of the Lebanese and Syrian border situation by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Resolution and return to normalcy • 25%
Escalation into further conflict • 25%
Continued stalemate • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official statements from Lebanese or Syrian governments or credible news outlets
Story
Syria Imposes Entry Restrictions on Lebanese Requiring Residency, Following Border Clash
Jan 3, 2025, 11:12 AM
The Syrian government has imposed entry restrictions on Lebanese citizens, allowing only those with Syrian residency documents to enter the country. This decision follows a border clash between the Lebanese army and Syrian armed groups, as reported by Lebanese security sources. The Lebanese army announced an engagement with Syrians at the border, resulting in an injury and a subsequent skirmish. Syrian authorities have begun enforcing this new policy, turning back Lebanese nationals without residency permits. The Lebanese Internal Security Forces have advised citizens against traveling to Syria due to these recent developments. Additionally, Syrian military operations have deployed reinforcements to the border with Lebanon to control the situation. There are indications that Syria might be imposing a reciprocal visa scheme on Lebanese citizens.
View original story
Similar markets
Relations remain tense • 25%
Relations worsen significantly • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Relations improve significantly • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Formal agreement signed • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Relations improve significantly • 25%
Relations fluctuate • 25%
Relations worsen • 25%
Relations remain the same • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Improved relations with Israel • 25%
Improved relations with both • 25%
Improved relations with Syria • 25%
International intervention leads to new governance • 25%
Assad remains in power • 25%
International intervention leads to resolution • 25%
Rebel forces take control • 25%
Stalemate with no clear control • 25%
Stalemate situation • 25%
Assad Regime remains in power • 25%
Rebels establish new government • 25%
Partition of Syria • 25%
Other • 25%
Peace Agreement • 25%
Ongoing Conflict • 25%
Ceasefire Implemented • 25%
Ceasefire Extended • 25%
Ceasefire Collapsed • 25%
Ceasefire Renegotiated • 25%
No significant disarmament • 25%
Partial disarmament • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Complete disarmament of Hezbollah • 25%
Stalemate with no significant territorial changes • 25%
Opposition captures other major cities but not Damascus • 25%
Opposition captures Damascus • 25%
Opposition fails to capture any major cities • 25%
Limited skirmishes continue • 25%
Formal peace talks initiated • 25%
Full-scale conflict resumes • 25%
Ceasefire holds with no further incidents • 25%
Other • 25%
Full Withdrawal • 25%
Partial Withdrawal • 25%
Extended Presence • 25%