Market
What will be the outcome of Israeli military presence in Southern Lebanon by April 2025?
2
Israel•United States•Southern Lebanon•Lebanese Army•Israeli•Benjamin Netanyahu•International Criminal Court•Lebanon•Hezbollah
Resolution / Starting Odds
Full Withdrawal • 25%
Partial Withdrawal • 25%
Extended Presence • 25%
Other • 25%
Official statements from Israeli government or credible news agencies
Story
Israel to Inform U.S. It Will Not Withdraw from Southern Lebanon After 60-Day Ceasefire; Netanyahu Faces ICC Warrant
Jan 4, 2025, 07:44 AM
Israeli media reports indicate that Israel is expected to inform the United States that it will not withdraw its military forces from Southern Lebanon following the completion of a 60-day ceasefire period. This decision is reportedly due to the Lebanese Army's perceived non-compliance with the ceasefire agreement. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under pressure, facing an International Criminal Court warrant for war crimes, and is reportedly unwilling to provide the current U.S. administration with any diplomatic achievements. Additionally, there are indications that Israel may seek to extend its military presence in Lebanon to 90 days, potentially lasting until April, contingent on the fulfillment of certain objectives related to the ceasefire. The situation remains tense, with ongoing accusations of ceasefire violations from both Israel and Hezbollah.
View original story
Similar markets
Increased military presence • 25%
Partial disarmament • 25%
Complete disarmament of Hezbollah • 25%
No significant disarmament • 25%
Complete Withdrawal • 25%
Partial Withdrawal • 25%
No Withdrawal • 25%
Withdrawal with Conditions • 25%
No withdrawal • 25%
Partial withdrawal • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Withdrawal with conditions • 25%
Condemnation • 25%
Call for negotiations • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Support • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Sanctions against Israel • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Continued presence • 25%
Partial withdrawal • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Increased diplomatic efforts • 25%
Condemnation • 25%
Support • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Expansion of control • 25%
Continued presence with limited engagement • 25%
Full withdrawal • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Israel withdraws • 25%
Increased military tension • 25%
Israel maintains presence • 25%
Other • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Increased Presence • 25%
Complete Withdrawal • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Partial Withdrawal • 25%