Market
What will be the outcome of the Lebanese-Israeli ceasefire negotiations by February 28, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire Implemented • 25%
Ceasefire Extended • 25%
Ceasefire Collapsed • 25%
Ceasefire Renegotiated • 25%
Official statements from the Lebanese or Israeli governments or credible international news agencies
Story
Lebanon to Elect President Joseph Aoun, Securing 81 of 86 Needed Votes, Amid Hezbollah's Weakening and Ceasefire Concerns
Jan 8, 2025, 07:00 PM
Lebanon is set to elect a new president on Thursday, ending a vacancy that has lasted over two years since Michel Aoun's term ended in October 2022. The Lebanese parliament will attempt to choose a successor in what will be the 13th effort to fill the position. Army Commander General Joseph Aoun has emerged as the leading candidate, supported by the US and Saudi Arabia, and is expected to secure the necessary 86 votes, having already secured 81 votes. The withdrawal of Hezbollah's candidate, Suleiman Franjieh, and his endorsement of Joseph Aoun have shifted the dynamics, with Hezbollah and its ally Amal appearing to reverse their stance, especially as Hezbollah has been weakened. The election comes at a critical time as Lebanon seeks to implement a ceasefire with Israel, which expires in three weeks, and to address the country's ongoing financial crisis and the aftermath of recent conflicts.
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Ceasefire mutually violated • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Israel • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Hezbollah • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Peaceful resolution with full compliance • 25%
Partial compliance with ongoing tensions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Renewed conflict • 25%
Ceasefire violated • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Partial compliance • 25%
New agreement • 25%
Ceasefire agreed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire rejected • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
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Fully intact • 25%
Partially violated • 25%
Broken • 25%
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No ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ceasefire with hostage release • 25%
Ceasefire without hostage release • 25%
Ceasefire talks collapse • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire talks continue without agreement • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Temporary suspension • 25%
Partial agreement reached • 25%
Talks collapse • 25%
Full agreement reached • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Ceasefire collapses, no further conflict • 25%
Ceasefire collapses, Hezbollah initiates conflict • 25%
Ceasefire collapses, Israel initiates conflict • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%