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Outcome of Syria-Lebanon diplomatic situation by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Relations improve significantly • 25%
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No significant change • 25%
Official statements from Syrian and Lebanese governments or credible news sources
Story
Syria Imposes Entry Restrictions on Lebanese After Border Clash Injures Soldier
Jan 3, 2025, 01:06 PM
Syria has imposed new entry restrictions on Lebanese citizens following a border clash between the Lebanese army and armed Syrians. The restrictions, which began to be enforced recently, require Lebanese nationals to possess a valid Syrian residency permit to enter the country. The Lebanese army reported that the clash occurred when Syrian militants attempted to reopen an illegal border crossing using a bulldozer, resulting in a firefight that injured a Lebanese soldier. The incident has led to heightened tensions between the two nations, marking the first significant diplomatic friction since the fall of the Assad regime last month. The Syrian authorities have not yet communicated the new border measures officially to Lebanon, leaving Lebanese officials surprised by the sudden closure of the border to their citizens.
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Formal agreement signed • 25%
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Status quo maintained • 25%
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Improved relations with Israel • 25%
Improved relations with Syria • 25%
Improved relations with both • 25%
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International intervention • 25%
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New government established • 25%
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Assad regime remains in power • 25%
Israel retreats • 25%
UN forces deployed • 25%
Qatar mediates a settlement • 25%
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