Market
What will be the outcome of the Syrian conflict by March 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Assad remains in power • 25%
Rebels establish new government • 25%
Stalemate situation • 25%
International intervention leads to resolution • 25%
Assad Regime remains in power • 25%
Rebel forces take control • 25%
International intervention leads to new governance • 25%
Stalemate with no clear control • 25%
Reports from international news agencies or official statements from governing bodies
Story
Biden Officials See Assad Regime Collapse Within Days Amid Rapid Rebel Advance, CNN Reports
Dec 7, 2024, 06:14 PM
Biden administration officials, observing the remarkable speed of the Syrian rebel offensive, increasingly see the possibility of President Bashar al-Assad's regime collapsing within days, according to a senior U.S. official who spoke to Al-Monitor and five U.S. officials cited by CNN. The emerging consensus among officials is that Assad's regime could fall imminently as rebel forces advance.
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Similar markets
Partition of Syria • 25%
Other • 25%
Ongoing Conflict • 25%
Peace Agreement • 25%
Rebels gain significant ground • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Government gains significant ground • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Continued Conflict • 25%
Regime Change • 25%
Opposition advances into Damascus • 25%
Government retains control with no significant changes • 25%
Peace negotiations commence • 25%
Other significant developments • 25%
Complete Rebel Victory • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Government Regains Control • 25%
Partial Rebel Control • 25%
Other • 25%
International intervention • 25%
Ongoing civil conflict • 25%
New government established • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Government regains full control • 25%
Significant gains by opposition • 25%
Government retains power • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Opposition victory • 25%
Rebel Victory • 25%
Stalemate/Status Quo • 25%
Assad Regime Victory • 25%
Peace Agreement • 25%
Stalemate with no significant territorial changes • 25%
Opposition captures Damascus • 25%
Opposition captures other major cities but not Damascus • 25%
Opposition fails to capture any major cities • 25%
Other • 25%
Military retaliation • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Diplomatic protest • 25%
International intervention • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
New government formed • 25%
Prolonged conflict • 25%
Coalition government formed • 25%
Assad regime retains control • 25%
Opposition takes control • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Regime maintains current positions • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Opposition gains significant ground • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Partial control with ongoing conflict • 25%
Full control and recognized government • 25%
Regime reestablished • 25%