Market
What will be the outcome of the Israel-Hamas negotiations by March 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Hostage exchange deal finalized • 25%
Ceasefire agreement only • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements, credible news agencies
Story
Israel Closer Than Ever to Hostage Deal with Hamas, Including 60-Day Ceasefire and 700-1,000 Palestinian Prisoners
Dec 16, 2024, 08:09 PM
Israeli officials have reported significant progress in negotiations for a hostage release deal with Hamas, with Defense Minister Israel Katz stating that the country is closer than ever to finalizing an agreement. Katz emphasized that there is a strong likelihood of government support for the deal, which is seen as the closest Israel has been to a hostage exchange since the last agreement. Reports indicate that the proposed deal includes a 60-day ceasefire and the release of dozens of Israeli detainees in exchange for 700 to 1,000 Palestinian prisoners. An Israeli delegation, including members from the IDF, Mossad, and Shin Bet, has traveled to Doha for further discussions on the hostage and ceasefire deal. Sources from both sides have described the current negotiations as unprecedented in their potential for success, with Israeli officials indicating that several outstanding issues are considered bridgeable. The outcome of these discussions is expected to be pivotal in the ongoing conflict in Gaza.
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Resumption of hostilities • 25%
Partial Agreement • 25%
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