Market
What will be the outcome of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire holds with no major incidents • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor incidents • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Ceasefire is extended • 25%
Official announcements from Israel, Hamas, or international organizations
Story
Macron Announces Release of Ofer Kalderon and Ohad Yahalomi Among 33 Hostages in Gaza Ceasefire
Jan 17, 2025, 10:57 AM
French President Emmanuel Macron announced that French-Israeli citizens Ofer Kalderon and Ohad Yahalomi, who have been held captive for 15 months, are included in the first group of 33 hostages set to be released by Hamas. This release is part of the initial phase of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, which is expected to begin on Sunday. The hostages' release marks a significant step in the ongoing efforts to resolve the conflict in Gaza.
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Other outcome • 25%
Resumption of conflict • 25%
Temporary ceasefire extension • 25%
Permanent ceasefire • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Partial compliance • 25%
Fully successful • 25%
Extended or renegotiated • 25%
Unsuccessful • 25%
Partially successful • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
New terms negotiated • 25%
Ceasefire breaks • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Ceasefire breaks down completely • 25%
Ceasefire fully implemented • 25%
Partial implementation • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
No implementation • 25%
Ceasefire holds with full compliance • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor violations • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with major violations • 25%
Ceasefire collapses entirely • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Israel • 25%
Ceasefire holds without violation • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Hamas • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Permanent peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire ends with renewed conflict • 25%
Ceasefire ends without major incidents • 25%
Failure • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Complete success • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Ceasefire with terms agreed • 25%
Temporary truce without formal agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Partial ceasefire agreement • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Partial ceasefire with phased agreements • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ceasefire and hostages release agreed • 25%
Ceasefire only agreed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire without hostage release • 25%
Ceasefire with hostage release • 25%
No ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire extended with new terms • 25%
Ceasefire breaks down • 25%
Ceasefire holds but no further talks • 25%
Ceasefire holds and leads to peace talks • 25%
Ceasefire holds without full agreement • 25%
Ceasefire holds with full peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with renewed conflict • 25%
Ceasefire extended with negotiations ongoing • 25%