Market
What will be the outcome of the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Permanent ceasefire • 25%
Temporary ceasefire extension • 25%
Resumption of conflict • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from the Israeli government, Hamas, or verified reports from major news agencies
Story
Netanyahu: Ceasefire Temporary; Israel May Resume War with New Force and U.S. Support
Jan 18, 2025, 06:45 PM
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that the ceasefire in Gaza is temporary and that Israel retains the right to resume military operations if necessary, with full backing from U.S. President Donald Trump and President Biden. Netanyahu stated that if Israel needs to return to fighting, it will do so with "new means and with great force." He also mentioned that Trump has pledged to lift all remaining restrictions on U.S. munitions, allowing Israel to resume the war with "tremendous force." Netanyahu promised to meet all war goals and to bring back all hostages held by Hamas.
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Ceasefire holds with no major incidents • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor incidents • 25%
Ceasefire is extended • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Unsuccessful • 25%
Extended or renegotiated • 25%
Fully successful • 25%
Partially successful • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Partial compliance • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Temporary peace with renewed conflict • 25%
Stalemate with no major changes • 25%
Complete breakdown of ceasefire • 25%
Successful long-term peace • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Ceasefire breaks down completely • 25%
Ceasefire holds without violation • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Israel • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Hamas • 25%
Ceasefire breaks • 25%
New terms negotiated • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor violations • 25%
Ceasefire fully implemented • 25%
Partial implementation • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
No implementation • 25%
Ceasefire holds with full compliance • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with major violations • 25%
Ceasefire collapses entirely • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached but not implemented • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached and implemented • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire rejected • 25%
Ceasefire agreed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Complete success • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Failure • 25%
Permanent peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire ends without major incidents • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Ceasefire ends with renewed conflict • 25%
Ceasefire with terms agreed • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Temporary truce without formal agreement • 25%
Ceasefire agreed and hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire agreed, no hostages released • 25%
No ceasefire, hostages released • 25%
No ceasefire, no hostages released • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Partial ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%