Market
What will be the outcome of Israel-Hamas negotiations by March 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Hostage Release Only • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Partial Agreement • 25%
Permanent peace agreement • 25%
Extended ceasefire • 25%
Resumption of hostilities • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from Israel, Hamas, or mediating parties
Story
Israel and Hamas Agree to 6-Week Ceasefire in Gaza, to Release 33 Hostages and Allow Humanitarian Aid
Jan 15, 2025, 05:15 PM
Israel and Hamas have agreed to a ceasefire deal, mediators announced, pausing the 15-month war in the Gaza Strip. The agreement, reached after weeks of negotiations in Doha, Qatar, includes the phased release of dozens of hostages held by Hamas and the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners held in Israel. It also allows for the return of hundreds of thousands of displaced people in Gaza to their homes and the influx of humanitarian aid into the territory. The deal is expected to halt fighting for an initial six weeks, during which negotiations on ending the war will begin. Over this period, 33 of nearly 100 hostages are to be reunited with their families. The agreement still requires approval from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Cabinet and is expected to take effect in the coming days. The ceasefire raises hopes of winding down the conflict, which has been the deadliest and most destructive between the two parties, triggered by Hamas's attack on October 7, 2023, that killed 1,200 Israelis and took 250 hostages. Israel's subsequent offensive has killed over 46,000 Palestinians and displaced 90% of Gaza's population. More than 100 hostages were freed in a weeklong truce in November 2023.
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Similar markets
Ceasefire agreement only • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Hostage exchange deal finalized • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
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Partial agreement • 25%
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Ceasefire and hostages release agreed • 25%
Ceasefire only agreed • 25%
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Partial ceasefire with phased agreements • 25%
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No ceasefire, hostages released • 25%
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No agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached and implemented • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached but not implemented • 25%
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Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Extended ceasefire • 25%
Other • 25%
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Full peace agreement • 25%
No ceasefire, no hostages released • 25%
No ceasefire, hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire agreed, no hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire agreed and hostages released • 25%
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Negotiations ongoing • 25%
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Ceasefire violated by Israel • 25%
Ceasefire holds without violation • 25%
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Temporary ceasefire agreed • 25%
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