Market
What will be the outcome of the Gaza ceasefire and hostage exchange deal by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Approved and implemented • 25%
Approved but not implemented • 25%
Rejected • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official statements or news reports detailing the status of the deal
Story
Ben-Gvir Threatens to Quit Netanyahu's Government Over 'Reckless' Gaza Ceasefire and Hostage Deal
Jan 16, 2025, 08:02 PM
Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir has threatened to resign from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government if a proposed ceasefire and hostage exchange deal with Hamas in Gaza is approved. Ben-Gvir, leader of the far-right Otzma Yehudit party, announced during a 9 PM press conference that his party would withdraw from the coalition government should the agreement proceed, labeling the deal as "reckless," "irresponsible," and "a disgrace," and arguing that it destroys all of Israel's military achievements in Gaza. He emphasized that if hostilities resume after the ceasefire, his party would consider rejoining the government. Ben-Gvir has also called for a complete halt to humanitarian aid to Gaza. The potential resignation of Ben-Gvir and his party could collapse Netanyahu’s coalition government.
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Partial implementation • 25%
Full implementation • 25%
Agreement abandoned • 25%
No implementation • 25%
Failure • 25%
Indeterminate • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Complete success • 25%
Ceasefire and hostage release successful • 25%
Ceasefire only • 25%
Hostage release only • 25%
Neither successful • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
Fully implemented • 25%
Deal partially implemented • 25%
Partially implemented • 25%
Not implemented • 25%
Deal collapsed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Deal fully implemented • 25%
Agreement Approved but Not Implemented • 25%
Negotiations Ongoing • 25%
Agreement Approved and Implemented • 25%
Agreement Rejected • 25%
No progress in negotiations • 25%
Hostage death toll increases • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Partial compliance • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
No deal reached • 25%
Deal approved without terrorist release • 25%
Deal approved with terrorist release • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No deal reached • 25%
Hostage deal reached • 25%
Hostages released without a formal deal • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Partial hostage release • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
New hostages taken • 25%
Information on Avera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed received • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Hadar Goldin's body returned • 25%
Yahya Sinwar's body returned • 25%
No agreement reached • 33%
Hostages released • 33%
Partial release of hostages • 34%