Market
What will be the outcome of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire negotiations by March 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Partial ceasefire with phased agreements • 25%
Ceasefire and hostages release agreed • 25%
Ceasefire only agreed • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements or credible news reports
Story
Israel Considers Ceasefire as Hamas Agrees to Release Hostages in Draft Deal
Jan 14, 2025, 11:33 AM
According to officials cited by the Associated Press, Hamas has accepted a draft agreement for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and the phased release of dozens of hostages. Mediator Qatar stated that the negotiations are at the 'closest point' yet to sealing a deal, with the announcement considered 'imminent'. Egypt and the United States are also involved in mediating the agreement, which requires approval from the Israeli Cabinet. Israeli officials acknowledged progress has been made but noted that details are still being finalized. The ceasefire proposal aims to halt hostilities and facilitate the release of hostages held by Hamas.
View original story
Similar markets
Ceasefire agreement reached but not implemented • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached and implemented • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Partial implementation • 25%
Ceasefire breaks • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
New terms negotiated • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire holds with full compliance • 25%
No implementation • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
Ceasefire fully implemented • 25%
Ceasefire collapses entirely • 25%
Ceasefire holds without violation • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Israel • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Hamas • 25%
Ceasefire breaks down completely • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with major violations • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor violations • 25%
Ceasefire agreed, no hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire agreed and hostages released • 25%
No ceasefire, hostages released • 25%
No ceasefire, no hostages released • 25%
Other • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Temporary truce without formal agreement • 25%
Ceasefire with terms agreed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Hostage exchange deal finalized • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreement only • 25%
Temporary ceasefire agreed • 25%
Permanent ceasefire agreed • 25%
Other • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Permanent peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire ends with renewed conflict • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Ceasefire ends without major incidents • 25%
Ceasefire without hostage release • 25%
Ceasefire with hostage release • 25%
No ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Resumption of hostilities • 25%
Hostage Release Only • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Partial Agreement • 25%
Extended ceasefire • 25%
Permanent peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreed • 25%
Ceasefire rejected • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
Partial agreement • 25%
Negotiations collapse • 25%
Extended negotiations • 25%
Partial ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%