Market
What will be the outcome of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire by March 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire holds without violation • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Israel • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Hamas • 25%
Ceasefire breaks down completely • 25%
Ceasefire fully implemented • 25%
Partial implementation • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
No implementation • 25%
Ceasefire holds with full compliance • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor violations • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with major violations • 25%
Ceasefire collapses entirely • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire breaks • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
New terms negotiated • 25%
Official announcements and news reports from Israeli and Palestinian authorities
Story
Red Cross in Gaza to Receive Three Israeli Female Hostages from Hamas Under Ceasefire Deal
Jan 19, 2025, 01:57 PM
The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) team in Gaza is on its way to receive three Israeli female hostages from Hamas, an official involved in the operation told Reuters. The hostages, identified as Romi Gonen, Emily Damari, and Doron Steinbrecher, are the first to be released as part of an ongoing ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas. Footage shows Red Cross vehicles driving through Gaza to the meeting point where they will collect the hostages.
View original story
Similar markets
Ceasefire ends with renewed conflict • 25%
Ceasefire ends without major incidents • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Permanent peace agreement • 25%
Partial ceasefire with phased agreements • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire and hostages release agreed • 25%
Ceasefire only agreed • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached but not implemented • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached and implemented • 25%
Ceasefire extended with new terms • 25%
Ceasefire holds and leads to peace talks • 25%
Ceasefire breaks down • 25%
Ceasefire holds but no further talks • 25%
Ceasefire agreed and hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire agreed, no hostages released • 25%
No ceasefire, no hostages released • 25%
No ceasefire, hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Ceasefire holds with no major incidents • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor incidents • 25%
Ceasefire is extended • 25%
Temporary ceasefire agreed • 25%
Permanent ceasefire agreed • 25%
Other • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with renewed conflict • 25%
Ceasefire extended with negotiations ongoing • 25%
Ceasefire holds without full agreement • 25%
Ceasefire holds with full peace agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire with terms agreed • 25%
Temporary truce without formal agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Extended or renegotiated • 25%
Partially successful • 25%
Fully successful • 25%
Unsuccessful • 25%
Temporary ceasefire extension • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Resumption of conflict • 25%
Permanent ceasefire • 25%
Ceasefire without hostage release • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ceasefire with hostage release • 25%