Market
What will be the outcome of the current ceasefire negotiations between Hamas and Israel by March 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire agreed and hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire agreed, no hostages released • 25%
No ceasefire, hostages released • 25%
No ceasefire, no hostages released • 25%
Official announcements from involved parties or international news reports
Story
Hamas Agrees to Gaza Ceasefire and Release of 33 Hostages, Netanyahu's Office Denies
Jan 15, 2025, 02:00 PM
Hamas has reportedly agreed to a ceasefire and hostage return proposal in Gaza, as shared by Qatari negotiators, according to an Israeli official. The proposal, mediated by the US, Qatar, and Egypt, involves the release of 33 hostages and a ceasefire in the region. However, the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has denied these reports, stating that Hamas has not yet responded to the proposal. Qatar's PM has met with Hamas negotiators in a final push toward the ceasefire and hostage release agreement. The conflicting statements highlight the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the ceasefire negotiations.
View original story
Similar markets
Ceasefire agreement reached but not implemented • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached and implemented • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Partial ceasefire with phased agreements • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire only agreed • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ceasefire and hostages release agreed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire rejected • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Ceasefire holds with full compliance • 25%
Ceasefire fully implemented • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor violations • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with major violations • 25%
Ceasefire collapses entirely • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Ceasefire breaks • 25%
New terms negotiated • 25%
Ceasefire breaks down completely • 25%
Ceasefire holds without violation • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Israel • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Hamas • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
No implementation • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
Partial implementation • 25%
Temporary ceasefire agreed • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Permanent ceasefire agreed • 25%
Temporary truce without formal agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire with terms agreed • 25%
Ceasefire with hostage release • 25%
No ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ceasefire without hostage release • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Hostage exchange deal finalized • 25%
Ceasefire agreement only • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire ends with renewed conflict • 25%
Ceasefire ends without major incidents • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Permanent peace agreement • 25%
Partial Agreement • 25%
Hostage Release Only • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Extended ceasefire • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Resumption of hostilities • 25%
Permanent peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire breaks down • 25%
Ceasefire extended with new terms • 25%
Ceasefire holds and leads to peace talks • 25%
Ceasefire holds but no further talks • 25%
Resumption of conflict • 25%
Permanent ceasefire • 25%
Temporary ceasefire extension • 25%
Other outcome • 25%