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What will be the main reason cited for any breakdown of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Violation by Hamas • 25%
Violation by Israel • 25%
External interference • 25%
Other • 25%
Reports from credible news organizations or statements from involved parties
Story
Israel Considers Ceasefire as Hamas Agrees to Release Hostages in Draft Deal
Jan 14, 2025, 11:33 AM
According to officials cited by the Associated Press, Hamas has accepted a draft agreement for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and the phased release of dozens of hostages. Mediator Qatar stated that the negotiations are at the 'closest point' yet to sealing a deal, with the announcement considered 'imminent'. Egypt and the United States are also involved in mediating the agreement, which requires approval from the Israeli Cabinet. Israeli officials acknowledged progress has been made but noted that details are still being finalized. The ceasefire proposal aims to halt hostilities and facilitate the release of hostages held by Hamas.
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Breach of terms by Israel • 25%
Internal political pressure • 25%
External interference • 25%
Breach of terms by Hamas • 25%
Renewed hostilities initiated by Hamas • 25%
Other reasons • 25%
Third-party intervention • 25%
Renewed hostilities initiated by Israel • 25%
Territorial disputes • 25%
Other • 25%
Military actions • 25%
Prisoner exchange disputes • 25%
Political disagreements • 25%
Technical issues • 25%
Military actions • 25%
Other reasons • 25%
Hamas actions • 25%
External influences • 25%
Other reasons • 25%
Israeli actions • 25%
New Israeli demands • 25%
Internal Palestinian disagreements • 25%
International pressure • 25%
Other • 25%
Hamas violations • 25%
Other • 25%
Political disagreements • 25%
Israeli military actions • 25%
Mediation Challenges • 25%
Hostage Release Issues • 25%
Ceasefire Terms • 25%
Other • 25%
Other • 25%
Disagreements over hostage release • 25%
Lack of international mediation • 25%
New Israeli conditions • 25%
Resumption of hostilities • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Ceasefire extension • 25%
Comprehensive peace talks • 25%
Other reasons • 25%
Lack of international pressure • 25%
Internal Hamas strategy • 25%
U.S. pressure on Israel • 25%
Ceasefire is extended • 25%
Ceasefire holds with no major incidents • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor incidents • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%