Market
What will be the outcome of the indirect negotiations between Hamas and Israel in Doha by March 31, 2025?
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Hamas•Liri Albag•Israeli•Gaza•Albag•Hebrew•Nahal Oz•Israel•Karina Ariev•Agam Berger•Naama Levy•Daniella Gilboa•Doha
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Prisoner Exchange • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcements from involved parties or credible international news agencies
Story
Hamas Releases Video of 19-Year-Old Israeli Hostage Liri Albag Held in Gaza for 456 Days
Jan 4, 2025, 04:03 PM
Hamas has released a video showing signs of life from Liri Albag, a 19-year-old Israeli hostage held in Gaza for 456 days. The video, which lasts three and a half minutes and is undated, features Albag speaking in Hebrew and urging the Israeli government to act for her release. Albag was kidnapped during the October 7, 2023, attack by Hamas at the Nahal Oz base in southern Israel, along with six others. One of those kidnapped was rescued, another was found dead, while the remaining five, including Albag, Karina Ariev, Agam Berger, Naama Levy, and Daniella Gilboa, remain hostages. The release of the video coincides with the resumption of indirect negotiations between Hamas and Israel in Doha for a ceasefire in Gaza. Albag's family has requested that the video and images from it not be shared, emphasizing her severe psychological distress evident in the footage. Hamas's release of such videos is considered by Israel as a form of psychological warfare.
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Similar markets
Other outcome • 25%
Partial agreement (e.g., hostage release only) • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Hostage exchange deal finalized • 25%
Ceasefire agreement only • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Extended ceasefire • 25%
Permanent peace agreement • 25%
Resumption of hostilities • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Hostage Release Only • 25%
Partial Agreement • 25%
Ceasefire agreed, no hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire agreed and hostages released • 25%
No ceasefire, hostages released • 25%
No ceasefire, no hostages released • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Partial hostage release • 25%
Ceasefire only agreed • 25%
Ceasefire and hostages release agreed • 25%
Partial ceasefire with phased agreements • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached but not implemented • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached and implemented • 25%
Extended negotiations • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations collapse • 25%
Partial agreement • 25%
No ceasefire, no hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire with hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire without hostages released • 25%
No ceasefire, hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire agreed • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Ceasefire rejected • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire with hostage release • 25%
Ceasefire without hostage release • 25%
Partial ceasefire agreement • 25%
Complete ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Talks postponed • 25%