Market
What will be the outcome of the Israel-Hamas negotiations by February 15, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire with hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire without hostages released • 25%
No ceasefire, hostages released • 25%
No ceasefire, no hostages released • 25%
Official statements from the Israeli government or Hamas, or reputable news outlets
Story
Israel Delays Gaza Ceasefire Until Hamas Lists 33 Hostages
Jan 19, 2025, 05:52 AM
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that Israel will not proceed with the planned ceasefire in Gaza until Hamas provides a list of 33 hostages to be released, as agreed. The ceasefire, initially scheduled to begin at 8:30 a.m. local time (0630 GMT) on Sunday, has been delayed due to Hamas's failure to deliver the list of hostages. Netanyahu instructed the Israel Defense Forces that the ceasefire would not commence until the list is received. Netanyahu stated, 'We will be unable to move forward with the framework until we receive the list of the hostages who will be released, as was agreed. Israel will not tolerate violations of the agreement. Hamas is solely responsible.' Hamas claimed the delay in providing the list is due to technical reasons. Israeli military spokesman Daniel Hagari confirmed that the ceasefire will not take effect until Hamas meets its obligations.
View original story
Similar markets
Hostage exchange deal finalized • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreement only • 25%
Permanent peace agreement • 25%
Extended ceasefire • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Resumption of hostilities • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Partial Agreement • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Hostage Release Only • 25%
Ceasefire with hostage release • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ceasefire without hostage release • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreed • 25%
Ceasefire rejected • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Partial hostage release • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire with terms agreed • 25%
Temporary truce without formal agreement • 25%
Ceasefire and Hostage Release • 25%
Only Hostage Release • 25%
Only Ceasefire • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Neither • 25%
Ceasefire only • 25%
Hostage deal only • 25%
Both hostage deal and ceasefire • 25%
Partial ceasefire with phased agreements • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire and hostages release agreed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire only agreed • 25%
Partial agreement (e.g., hostage release only) • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Full peace agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Extended ceasefire • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Partial ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%