Market
What will be the outcome of the Hamas-Israel ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2025?
2
Hamas•Israeli•Agam Berger•Red Cross•Gaza Strip•Jabalia•Israel•Berger•Kamal Adwan•Arbel Yehud•Gadi Moses•Thai•Palestinian
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with minor skirmishes • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with major conflict • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Reports from international news agencies such as Reuters, BBC, or Al Jazeera
Story
Hamas Releases 19-Year-Old Israeli Soldier Agam Berger to Red Cross in Gaza, Part of Deal for Eight Hostages and 110 Palestinian Prisoners
Jan 30, 2025, 08:17 AM
Hamas has handed over 19-year-old Israeli soldier Agam Berger to the Red Cross in the Gaza Strip's Jabalia camp, marking the first of eight hostages set to be released on January 30, 2025, as part of a ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel. Berger, who was abducted on October 7, 2023, and held for 482 days, was transferred near the Kamal Adwan hospital in Jabalia in a public ceremony amidst the ruins. The release is part of a broader deal that includes the liberation of two more Israeli hostages, Arbel Yehud and Gadi Moses, and five Thai captives later in the day. In exchange, Israel is expected to release 110 Palestinian prisoners.
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Similar markets
Ceasefire breaks with minor skirmishes • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with major conflict • 25%
Ceasefire holds with no major incidents • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor incidents • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Ceasefire is extended • 25%
Resumption of conflict • 25%
Temporary ceasefire extension • 25%
Permanent ceasefire • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Fully successful • 25%
Partially successful • 25%
Unsuccessful • 25%
Extended or renegotiated • 25%
Failure • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Complete success • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Ceasefire ends without further talks • 25%
Informal negotiations continue • 25%
Formal peace talks initiated • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire holds with no further incidents • 25%
Ceasefire breaks and hostilities resume • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with major incidents • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor incidents • 25%
Ceasefire breaks and hostages remain • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire holds but hostages remain • 25%
Ceasefire holds and hostages are released • 25%
Partial compliance • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire collapses entirely • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with major violations • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor violations • 25%
Ceasefire holds with full compliance • 25%
No implementation • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
Partial implementation • 25%
Ceasefire fully implemented • 25%
Ceasefire breaks down completely • 25%
Ceasefire holds without violation • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Hamas • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Israel • 25%
Minor skirmishes • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Major conflict resumes • 25%
New terms negotiated • 25%
New peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire breaks • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Ceasefire holds but no further talks • 25%
Ceasefire extended with new terms • 25%
Ceasefire breaks down • 25%
Ceasefire holds and leads to peace talks • 25%
Stalemate with no major changes • 25%
Complete breakdown of ceasefire • 25%
Temporary peace with renewed conflict • 25%
Successful long-term peace • 25%