Market
What will be the outcome of the Hamas-Israel ceasefire by March 8, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire holds with no further incidents • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor incidents • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with major incidents • 25%
Ceasefire breaks and hostilities resume • 25%
Reports from international news agencies and official statements from both Hamas and Israeli government.
Story
Hamas Releases Four Female Israeli Soldiers Held 15 Months in Second Ceasefire Swap
Jan 25, 2025, 01:00 PM
Hamas released four female Israeli soldiers on Saturday after holding them captive for 15 months, as part of a ceasefire agreement with Israel. This marks the second swap under the deal aimed at ending the 15-month-old war in Gaza. The soldiers, aged 19 to 20, were handed over to the International Committee of the Red Cross after being paraded before a crowd in Gaza City. In exchange, Israel released 200 Palestinian prisoners, as confirmed by Israel's Prison Service. The exchange comes as part of a fragile six-week ceasefire agreement that includes the exchange of hostages and prisoners. This latest development follows the initial swap of hostages and prisoners since the ceasefire took effect last weekend.
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Ceasefire holds but no further talks • 25%
Ceasefire extended with new terms • 25%
Ceasefire breaks down • 25%
Ceasefire holds and leads to peace talks • 25%
Ceasefire ends without major incidents • 25%
Ceasefire ends with renewed conflict • 25%
Permanent peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Ceasefire holds but hostages remain • 25%
Ceasefire breaks and hostages remain • 25%
Ceasefire holds and hostages are released • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with hostages released • 25%
Major conflict resumes • 25%
Minor skirmishes • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
New peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
No implementation • 25%
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New terms negotiated • 25%
Ceasefire fully implemented • 25%
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Ceasefire collapses entirely • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with major violations • 25%
Ceasefire breaks • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor violations • 25%
Ceasefire holds with full compliance • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Ceasefire holds without violation • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Israel • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Hamas • 25%
Ceasefire holds with no major incidents • 25%
New agreement or extension reached • 25%
Ceasefire broken with major conflict • 25%
Ceasefire broken with minor incidents • 25%
Ceasefire and hostages release agreed • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire only agreed • 25%
Partial ceasefire with phased agreements • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
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Complete exchange as planned • 25%
Exchange fails • 25%
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Ceasefire agreed and hostages released • 25%
No ceasefire, no hostages released • 25%
No ceasefire, hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire agreed, no hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Ceasefire is extended • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor incidents • 25%
Ceasefire holds with no major incidents • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with major conflict • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with minor skirmishes • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached but not implemented • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached and implemented • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with major conflict • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with minor skirmishes • 25%
New long-term peace agreement reached • 25%