Market
What will be the outcome of the ceasefire negotiations by March 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful ceasefire agreement • 25%
Temporary truce • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Official announcements from Israeli or Palestinian authorities or verified news reports
Story
Islamic Jihad's Al-Quds Brigades Release Proof-of-Life Video of Hostage Arbel Yehoud Filmed January 25
Jan 27, 2025, 06:46 PM
The Palestinian Islamic Jihad's military wing, the Al-Quds Brigades, has released a proof-of-life video of Israeli hostage Arbel Yehoud, who is expected to be released on Thursday. The video, reportedly filmed on January 25, shows Yehoud reading from a script, stating, 'I am fine and hope to return to you soon.' The release of the video comes amid ongoing ceasefire negotiations and hostage exchanges between Israel and militant groups in Gaza. Israeli authorities have requested that the video not be shared until her family consents. The Hostages and Missing Families Forum Headquarters also urged the public not to publish the video or images.
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Ceasefire extended • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire breaks • 25%
Ceasefire renegotiated • 25%
Stalemate continues • 25%
Ceasefire approved • 25%
Ceasefire rejected • 25%
Ceasefire renegotiated • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Ceasefire talks continue without agreement • 25%
Ceasefire talks collapse • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Renewed hostilities • 25%
Ceasefire ends without extension • 25%
Permanent peace agreement • 25%
Hezbollah withdraws • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Israel takes military action • 25%
New ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ceasefire breakdown • 25%
New terms negotiated • 25%
Agreement on extension • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Hostage agreement fulfilled • 25%
Ceasefire continues • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Israel resumes fighting • 25%
Fully implemented • 25%
Not implemented • 25%
Broken • 25%
Partially implemented • 25%
Ceasefire ends without new agreement • 25%
Ceasefire continues • 25%
Ceasefire ends with new agreement • 25%
Conflict resumes • 25%
Permanent ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Breakdown of negotiations • 25%
Extension of current ceasefire • 25%
Agreement signed and implemented • 25%
Agreement delayed • 25%
Agreement signed but not implemented • 25%
Agreement not signed • 25%
Ceasefire agreed, no hostages released • 25%
No ceasefire, no hostages released • 25%
No ceasefire, hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire agreed and hostages released • 25%