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What will be the outcome of the second phase of the ceasefire by March 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire continues • 25%
Israel resumes fighting • 25%
Hostage agreement fulfilled • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from the Israeli government or international news agencies
Story
Netanyahu: Biden and Trump Back Israel's Right to Resume Gaza Fighting if Second Phase Fails
Jan 18, 2025, 06:13 PM
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has revealed that both former U.S. Presidents Joe Biden and Donald Trump have provided Israel with unequivocal guarantees to resume fighting in Gaza if negotiations for the second phase of the ceasefire and hostage agreement fail and Hamas does not meet Israel's security demands. Netanyahu shared this during a government meeting, emphasizing that the ceasefire is temporary and that Israel is committed to achieving all its war goals, including the return of all Israeli hostages and the destruction of Hamas. Trump has also assured Israel of the resumption of military supplies that were halted under Biden's administration, which Netanyahu stated is crucial for potential renewed fighting.
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Ceasefire extended • 25%
Ceasefire breaks • 25%
Ceasefire renegotiated • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Extension of current ceasefire • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Breakdown of negotiations • 25%
Permanent ceasefire agreement • 25%
Permanent peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Renewed hostilities • 25%
Ceasefire ends without extension • 25%
Israel takes military action • 25%
New ceasefire agreement • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Hezbollah withdraws • 25%
Ceasefire approved • 25%
Stalemate continues • 25%
Ceasefire renegotiated • 25%
Ceasefire rejected • 25%
Ceasefire talks continue without agreement • 25%
Ceasefire talks collapse • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Ceasefire breakdown • 25%
New terms negotiated • 25%
Agreement on extension • 25%
Partial withdrawal or disarmament • 25%
Hezbollah withdraws and disarms • 25%
Ceasefire agreement collapses • 25%
No withdrawal or disarmament • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
Failed implementation • 25%
Successful implementation • 25%
Partial implementation • 25%
Agreement delayed • 25%
Agreement not signed • 25%
Agreement signed but not implemented • 25%
Agreement signed and implemented • 25%
Complete exchange as planned • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Exchange fails • 25%
Partial exchange • 25%