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What will be the outcome of diplomatic discussions on the ceasefire by March 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Agreement on extension • 25%
New terms negotiated • 25%
Ceasefire breakdown • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Official statements from the involved governments or international news agencies
Story
Israel Plans 90-Day Extension of Military Presence in Southern Lebanon Beyond January 27 Deadline
Jan 4, 2025, 10:18 AM
Israel reportedly plans to inform the United States that it will not withdraw its military forces from southern Lebanon after the 60-day period stipulated in a ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah, which ends on January 27, 2025. The agreement, which took effect on November 27, 2024, required Israel to gradually pull out its forces, while the Lebanese army was to deploy in the region and dismantle Hezbollah's military infrastructure. Israel cites the Lebanese army's slow progress in meeting these terms and Hezbollah's regrouping efforts as reasons for its decision. Additionally, Israel has stated it will not allow residents of Lebanese border villages to return to their homes while its forces remain in the area. Reports suggest that Israel may extend its military presence in southern Lebanon to 90 days. US Major General Jasper Jeffers, overseeing the implementation of the ceasefire, has reportedly informed Lebanese officials of Israel's plans. The ceasefire deal, brokered by the US and France, aimed to end 14 months of conflict that resulted in significant casualties and displacement in Lebanon. The Lebanese government has expressed concerns over Israel's violations of the ceasefire agreement, which include over 350 documented breaches since its implementation.
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